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Ourense CF vs Celta Vigo B Prediction— Spain - Primera División RFEF - Group 1

Group 1 - 36 ·Sunday, May 10, 2026, 14:30

Ourense CF

PPG 1.65 · HOME

2 – 4

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Celta Vigo B

PPG 1.59 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 54.6% vs bookmaker-implied 57.1%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.6%0-19.8%0-26.3%0-32.7%0-4+1.2%1 1-09.8%1-112.6%1-28.1%1-33.5%1-4+1.5%2 2-06.3%2-18.1%2-25.2%2-32.3%2-4+1.0%3 3-02.7%3-13.5%3-22.2%3-31.0%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-01.2%4+-11.5%4+-21.0%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 36.8% 48.8% 2.05 -24.6%

Draw 27.2% 30.8% 3.25 -7.0%

Away win 36.0% 30.8% 3.25 +17.0%

Over 2.5 50.2% 51.3% 1.95 -2.1%

Over 3.5 25.9% 28.6% 3.50 -5.6%

BTTS 54.6% 57.1% 1.75 -4.5%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 60 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 40%

O2.5 53%

BTTS 62%

Score Hit 47%

ROI 1.2%

Bet Hit 56%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 22%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-4

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob54.6%

A 36% / xG 1.3-1.3 / O2.5 50% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.6%

#2 0–0 7.6%

#3 1–2 8.1%

#4 2–1 8.1%

#5 0–1 9.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Ourense CF1.3

Celta Vigo B1.3

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.2% · O3.5 PROB 25.9%

Form & verdict PPG

OURENSE CF · PPG 1.65

CELTA VIGO B · PPG 1.59

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home GOOD (1.65), Away GOOD (1.59)

Win probability 1X2

Ourense CF (H) 36.8%

ODDS 2.05 · IMPLIED 48.8% EV -24.6%

Draw 27.2%

ODDS 3.25 · IMPLIED 30.8% EV -7.0%

Celta Vigo B (A) 36.0%

ODDS 3.25 · IMPLIED 30.8% EV +17.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Ourense CF face Celta Vigo B in Spain - Primera División RFEF - Group 1 on Sunday, May 10, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Ourense CF a 37% chance, the draw 27% and Celta Vigo B 36%, so Ourense CF are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Ourense CF and 1.3 for Celta Vigo B (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Ourense CF are averaging 1.65 points per game versus 1.59 for Celta Vigo B. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +17.0%. This match finished 2-4.

Ourense CF vs Celta Vigo B Prediction— Spain - Primera División RFEF - Group 1

Match Preview & Prediction

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