Today / Leganes vs Racing

Leganes vs Racing Prediction

Sunday, May 10, 2026

Leganes

PPG 1.28 · HOME

1 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Racing

PPG 1.63 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Home weakness: AVERAGE (1.28) vs Away GOOD (1.63)

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.7%0-19.0%0-27.1%0-33.7%0-4+2.1%1 1-07.4%1-111.6%1-29.1%1-34.8%1-4+2.7%2 2-04.8%2-17.5%2-25.9%2-33.1%2-4+1.7%3 3-02.0%3-13.2%3-22.5%3-31.3%3-4+0.7%4+ 4+-00.9%4+-11.4%4+-21.1%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 34.1% — — —

Draw 25.3% — — —

Away win 40.7% — — —

Over 2.5 55.4% — — —

Over 3.5 32.0% — — —

BTTS 58.8% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 37%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)1.6 BTTS prob58.8%

A 41% / xG 1.3-1.6 / O2.5 55% / BTTS 59%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.6%

#2 1–2✓ 9.1%

#3 0–0 5.7%

#4 2–1 7.5%

#5 0–1 9.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Leganes1.3

Racing1.6

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 55.4% · O3.5 PROB 32.0%

Form & verdict PPG

LEGANES · PPG 1.28

RACING · PPG 1.63

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team | No clear value

45%

DANGER

Home weakness: AVERAGE (1.28) vs Away GOOD (1.63)

Win probability 1X2

Leganes (H) 34.1%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 25.3%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Racing (A) 40.7%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Leganes face Racing on Sunday, May 10, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Leganes a 34% chance, the draw 25% and Racing 41%, so Racing are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Leganes and 1.6 for Racing (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 55% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 59% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Leganes are averaging 1.28 points per game versus 1.63 for Racing. This match finished 1-2.

Leganes vs Racing Prediction

Match Preview & Prediction

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