Today / Uruguay - Primera División - Apertura / Liverpool Montevideo vs Boston River

Liverpool Montevideo vs Boston River Prediction— Uruguay - Primera División - Apertura

Clausura · Matchday 5 ·Sunday, September 6, 2026, 22:30

Liverpool Montevideo

PPG 1.33 · HOME

UPCOMING

Boston River

PPG 1.08 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home 58% chance

Model probability 55.5% vs bookmaker-implied 58.8%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.3%0-16.3%0-22.4%0-30.6%0-4+0.1%1 1-014.3%1-110.9%1-24.2%1-31.1%1-4+0.2%2 2-012.4%2-19.4%2-23.6%2-30.9%2-4+0.2%3 3-07.2%3-15.4%3-22.1%3-30.5%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-04.6%4+-13.5%4+-21.3%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 55.5% 58.8% 1.70 -5.7%

Draw 23.4% 30.3% 3.30 -13.7%

Away win 21.2% 23.1% 4.33 -4.9%

Over 2.5 51.5% 50.0% 2.00 +3.0%

Over 3.5 31.6% 28.6% 3.50 +10.6%

BTTS 50.1% 54.6% 1.83 -8.3%

Home O1.5 49.9% 54.6% 1.83 -8.7%

Away O1.5 20.8% 26.7% 3.75 -13.2%

League track record ↗

Based on 73 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 45%

O2.5 49%

BTTS 49%

Score Hit 52%

ROI -36.0%

Bet Hit 32%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 29%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob50.1%

H 56% / xG 1.7-0.8 / O2.5 52% / BTTS 50%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 14.3%

#2 2–0 12.4%

#3 1–1 10.9%

#4 2–1 9.4%

#5 0–0 8.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Liverpool Montevideo1.7

Boston River0.8

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 51.5% · O3.5 PROB 31.6%

Form & verdict PPG

LIVERPOOL MONTEVIDEO · PPG 1.33

BOSTON RIVER · PPG 1.08

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

Chance this pick lands

58%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.97 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Liverpool Montevideo (H) 55.5%

ODDS 1.70 · IMPLIED 58.8% EV -5.7%

Draw 23.4%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV -13.7%

Boston River (A) 21.2%

ODDS 4.33 · IMPLIED 23.1% EV -4.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Liverpool Montevideo face Boston River in Uruguay - Primera División - Apertura on Sunday, September 6, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Liverpool Montevideo a 56% chance, the draw 23% and Boston River 21%, so Liverpool Montevideo are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Liverpool Montevideo and 0.8 for Boston River (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 52% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 50% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Liverpool Montevideo are averaging 1.33 points per game versus 1.08 for Boston River. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +10.6%.

Liverpool Montevideo vs Boston River Prediction— Uruguay - Primera División - Apertura

Match Preview & Prediction

More Uruguay - Primera División - Apertura Predictions