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NorthEast Utd vs Chennaiyin Prediction— India - Indian Super League

Regular Season - 12 ·Sunday, May 10, 2026, 14:00

NorthEast Utd

PPG 1.00 · HOME

4 – 1

FULL TIME

Chennaiyin

PPG 0.67 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-013.0%0-112.4%0-25.9%0-31.9%0-4+0.6%1 1-014.1%1-113.5%1-26.4%1-32.1%1-4+0.6%2 2-07.6%2-17.3%2-23.5%2-31.1%2-4+0.3%3 3-02.8%3-12.6%3-21.3%3-30.4%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-00.9%4+-10.9%4+-20.4%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 39.1% 48.8% 2.05 -19.9%

Draw 31.0% 30.3% 3.30 +2.3%

Away win 29.9% 30.3% 3.30 -0.8%

Over 2.5 45.8% 54.1% 1.85 -15.3%

Over 3.5 15.0% 32.3% 3.10 -32.1%

BTTS 48.2% 59.9% 1.67 -19.5%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 37 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 41%

O2.5 57%

BTTS 62%

Score Hit 60%

ROI 5.0%

Bet Hit 64%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 2 38%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 4-1

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob48.2%

D 31% / xG 1.1-1.0 / U2.5 46% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.5%

#2 0–0 13.0%

#3 1–0 14.1%

#4 0–1 12.4%

#5 2–0 7.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

NorthEast Utd1.1

Chennaiyin1.0

COMBINED 2.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 45.8% · O3.5 PROB 15.0%

Form & verdict PPG

NORTHEAST UTD · PPG 1.00

CHENNAIYIN · PPG 0.67

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.00) > Away POOR (0.67)

Win probability 1X2

NorthEast Utd (H) 39.1%

ODDS 2.05 · IMPLIED 48.8% EV -19.9%

Draw 31.0%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV +2.3%

Chennaiyin (A) 29.9%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV -0.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

NorthEast Utd face Chennaiyin in India - Indian Super League on Sunday, May 10, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives NorthEast Utd a 39% chance, the draw 31% and Chennaiyin 30%, so NorthEast Utd are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for NorthEast Utd and 1.0 for Chennaiyin (2.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 46% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, NorthEast Utd are averaging 1.00 points per game versus 0.67 for Chennaiyin. The best value bet our model finds is a draw, with an expected value of +2.3%. This match finished 4-1.

NorthEast Utd vs Chennaiyin Prediction— India - Indian Super League

Match Preview & Prediction

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