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Nomme Utd vs Paide Prediction— Estonia - Meistriliiga

Regular Season - 11 ·Sunday, May 10, 2026, 14:00

Nomme Utd

PPG 1.80 · HOME

2 – 3

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Paide

PPG 1.60 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 4.6 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 73.3% vs bookmaker-implied 69.4% — a real, if thin, edge.

+5.5% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.0%0-12.3%0-22.7%0-32.1%0-4+2.2%1 1-02.2%1-15.2%1-26.1%1-34.8%1-4+4.9%2 2-02.5%2-15.9%2-27.0%2-35.5%2-4+5.6%3 3-01.9%3-14.5%3-25.3%3-34.2%3-4+4.3%4+ 4+-01.9%4+-14.4%4+-25.2%4+-34.1%4+-4+4.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 36.8% 25.0% 4.00 +47.2%

Draw 23.2% 25.6% 3.90 -5.7%

Away win 40.0% 60.6% 1.65 -34.0%

Over 2.5 73.3% 69.4% 1.44 +5.5%

Over 3.5 68.0% 47.6% 2.10 +42.8%

BTTS 66.7% 66.7% 1.50 +0.1%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 42 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 57%

O2.5 64%

BTTS 57%

Score Hit 36%

ROI -14.4%

Bet Hit 57%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 3 55%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)2.3 xG (away)2.4 BTTS prob66.7%

A 40% / xG 2.3-2.4 / O2.5 73% / BTTS 67%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–2 7.0%

#2 1–2 6.1%

#3 1–1 5.2%

#4 2–1 5.9%

#5 2–3✓ 5.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Nomme Utd2.3

Paide2.4

COMBINED 4.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 73.3% · O3.5 PROB 68.0%

Form & verdict PPG

NOMME UTD · PPG 1.80

PAIDE · PPG 1.60

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity | Best EV...

48%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home GOOD (1.80), Away GOOD (1.60)

Win probability 1X2

Nomme Utd (H) 36.8%

ODDS 4.00 · IMPLIED 25.0% EV +47.2%

Draw 23.2%

ODDS 3.90 · IMPLIED 25.6% EV -5.7%

Paide (A) 40.0%

ODDS 1.65 · IMPLIED 60.6% EV -34.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Nomme Utd face Paide in Estonia - Meistriliiga on Sunday, May 10, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Nomme Utd a 37% chance, the draw 23% and Paide 40%, so Paide are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.3 for Nomme Utd and 2.4 for Paide (4.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-2. There is a 73% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 67% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Nomme Utd are averaging 1.80 points per game versus 1.60 for Paide. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +47.2%. This match finished 2-3.

Nomme Utd vs Paide Prediction— Estonia - Meistriliiga

Match Preview & Prediction

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