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Ararat-Armenia vs Noah Prediction— Armenia - Premier League

Regular Season - 25 ·Sunday, May 10, 2026, 14:00

Ararat-Armenia

PPG 2.45 · HOME

0 – 4

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Noah

PPG 1.90 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 52.3% vs bookmaker-implied 55.6%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-010.2%0-111.3%0-26.2%0-32.3%0-4+0.8%1 1-012.0%1-113.3%1-27.3%1-32.7%1-4+1.0%2 2-07.1%2-17.8%2-24.3%2-31.6%2-4+0.6%3 3-02.8%3-13.1%3-21.7%3-30.6%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-01.0%4+-11.2%4+-20.6%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 36.4% 39.2% 2.55 -7.2%

Draw 28.2% 31.3% 3.20 -5.9%

Away win 35.5% 39.2% 2.55 -9.5%

Over 2.5 46.0% 48.8% 2.05 -5.7%

Over 3.5 19.7% 27.0% 3.70 -16.3%

BTTS 52.3% 55.6% 1.80 -5.9%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 32 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 53%

O2.5 47%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 50%

ROI -20.4%

Bet Hit 56%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 2 30%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-4

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob52.3%

D 28% / xG 1.2-1.1 / U2.5 46% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.3%

#2 0–0 10.2%

#3 1–0 12.0%

#4 0–1 11.3%

#5 2–1 7.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Ararat-Armenia1.2

Noah1.1

COMBINED 2.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 46.0% · O3.5 PROB 19.7%

Form & verdict PPG

ARARAT-ARMENIA · PPG 2.45

NOAH · PPG 1.90

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: EXCELLENT (2.45) > Away GOOD (1.90)

Win probability 1X2

Ararat-Armenia (H) 36.4%

ODDS 2.55 · IMPLIED 39.2% EV -7.2%

Draw 28.2%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV -5.9%

Noah (A) 35.5%

ODDS 2.55 · IMPLIED 39.2% EV -9.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Ararat-Armenia face Noah in Armenia - Premier League on Sunday, May 10, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Ararat-Armenia a 36% chance, the draw 28% and Noah 36%, so Ararat-Armenia are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Ararat-Armenia and 1.1 for Noah (2.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 46% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Ararat-Armenia are averaging 2.45 points per game versus 1.90 for Noah. This match finished 0-4.

Ararat-Armenia vs Noah Prediction— Armenia - Premier League

Match Preview & Prediction

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