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Upington City vs Casric Stars Prediction— South-Africa - 1st Division

Regular Season - 29 ·Sunday, May 10, 2026, 13:00

Upington City

PPG 1.93 · HOME

0 – 2

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Casric Stars

PPG 1.14 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.93) > Away AVERAGE (1.14)

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-010.1%0-111.3%0-26.3%0-32.4%0-4+0.8%1 1-011.8%1-113.3%1-27.4%1-32.8%1-4+1.0%2 2-07.0%2-17.8%2-24.4%2-31.6%2-4+0.6%3 3-02.7%3-13.1%3-21.7%3-30.6%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-01.0%4+-11.2%4+-20.6%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 36.4% — — —

Draw 28.2% — — —

Away win 35.5% — — —

Over 2.5 46.1% — — —

Over 3.5 20.0% — — —

BTTS 52.3% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 42 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 60%

O2.5 55%

BTTS 62%

Score Hit 60%

ROI 19.5%

Bet Hit 67%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 2 30%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-2

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob52.3%

D 28% / xG 1.2-1.1 / U2.5 46% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.3%

#2 0–0 10.1%

#3 1–0 11.8%

#4 0–1 11.3%

#5 2–1 7.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Upington City1.2

Casric Stars1.1

COMBINED 2.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 46.1% · O3.5 PROB 20.0%

Form & verdict PPG

UPINGTON CITY · PPG 1.93

CASRIC STARS · PPG 1.14

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.93) > Away AVERAGE (1.14)

Win probability 1X2

Upington City (H) 36.4%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 28.2%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Casric Stars (A) 35.5%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Upington City face Casric Stars in South-Africa - 1st Division on Sunday, May 10, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Upington City a 36% chance, the draw 28% and Casric Stars 36%, so Upington City are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Upington City and 1.1 for Casric Stars (2.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 46% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Upington City are averaging 1.93 points per game versus 1.14 for Casric Stars. This match finished 0-2.

Upington City vs Casric Stars Prediction— South-Africa - 1st Division

Match Preview & Prediction

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