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Lerumo Lions vs Black Leopards Prediction— South-Africa - 1st Division

Regular Season - 30 ·Sunday, May 17, 2026, 13:00

Lerumo Lions

PPG 1.29 · HOME

4 – 0

FULL TIME

Black Leopards

PPG 0.71 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-013.0%0-111.2%0-24.8%0-31.4%0-4+0.4%1 1-015.3%1-113.2%1-25.7%1-31.6%1-4+0.4%2 2-09.0%2-17.8%2-23.3%2-31.0%2-4+0.2%3 3-03.6%3-13.1%3-21.3%3-30.4%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-01.4%4+-11.2%4+-20.5%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 45.3% 39.2% 2.55 +15.5%

Draw 29.6% 33.9% 2.95 -7.6%

Away win 25.1% 38.5% 2.60 -20.8%

Over 2.5 46.2% 47.6% 2.10 -3.0%

Over 3.5 15.0% 23.8% 4.20 -22.2%

BTTS 48.6% 53.2% 1.88 -8.6%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 42 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 60%

O2.5 55%

BTTS 62%

Score Hit 60%

ROI 19.5%

Bet Hit 67%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 29%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 4-0

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob48.6%

H 45% / xG 1.2-0.9 / U2.5 46% / NoBTTS 49%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.2%

#2 0–0 13.0%

#3 1–0 15.3%

#4 0–1 11.2%

#5 2–0 9.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Lerumo Lions1.2

Black Leopards0.9

COMBINED 2.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 46.2% · O3.5 PROB 15.0%

Form & verdict PPG

LERUMO LIONS · PPG 1.29

BLACK LEOPARDS · PPG 0.71

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.29) > Away POOR (0.71)

Win probability 1X2

Lerumo Lions (H) 45.3%

ODDS 2.55 · IMPLIED 39.2% EV +15.5%

Draw 29.6%

ODDS 2.95 · IMPLIED 33.9% EV -7.6%

Black Leopards (A) 25.1%

ODDS 2.60 · IMPLIED 38.5% EV -20.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Lerumo Lions face Black Leopards in South-Africa - 1st Division on Sunday, May 17, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Lerumo Lions a 45% chance, the draw 30% and Black Leopards 25%, so Lerumo Lions are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Lerumo Lions and 0.9 for Black Leopards (2.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 46% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Lerumo Lions are averaging 1.29 points per game versus 0.71 for Black Leopards. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +15.5%. This match finished 4-0.

Lerumo Lions vs Black Leopards Prediction— South-Africa - 1st Division

Match Preview & Prediction

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