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Kruger United vs The Bees Prediction— South-Africa - 1st Division

Regular Season - 30 ·Sunday, May 17, 2026, 13:00

Kruger United

PPG 2.43 · HOME

2 – 2

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME

The Bees

PPG 0.43 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 51.7% vs bookmaker-implied 59.9%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.6%0-17.4%0-23.2%0-30.9%0-4+0.2%1 1-013.7%1-111.8%1-25.1%1-31.5%1-4+0.4%2 2-010.9%2-19.4%2-24.0%2-31.2%2-4+0.3%3 3-05.8%3-15.0%3-22.1%3-30.6%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-03.3%4+-12.8%4+-21.2%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 51.7% 59.9% 1.67 -13.7%

Draw 25.5% 30.3% 3.30 -9.5%

Away win 22.9% 21.1% 4.75 +5.3%

Over 2.5 47.6% 45.5% 2.20 +4.7%

Over 3.5 23.3% 25.9% 3.86 -6.0%

BTTS 51.6% 49.8% 2.01 +3.7%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 42 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 60%

O2.5 55%

BTTS 62%

Score Hit 60%

ROI 19.5%

Bet Hit 67%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 25%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-2

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob51.6%

H 52% / xG 1.6-0.9 / O2.5 48% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.8%

#2 1–0 13.7%

#3 2–0 10.9%

#4 0–0 8.6%

#5 2–1 9.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Kruger United1.6

The Bees0.9

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 47.6% · O3.5 PROB 23.3%

Form & verdict PPG

KRUGER UNITED · PPG 2.43

THE BEES · PPG 0.43

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value | B...

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.43) vs P(Home)=51.7%

Win probability 1X2

Kruger United (H) 51.7%

ODDS 1.67 · IMPLIED 59.9% EV -13.7%

Draw 25.5%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV -9.5%

The Bees (A) 22.9%

ODDS 4.75 · IMPLIED 21.1% EV +5.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Kruger United face The Bees in South-Africa - 1st Division on Sunday, May 17, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Kruger United a 52% chance, the draw 26% and The Bees 23%, so Kruger United are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Kruger United and 0.9 for The Bees (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 48% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Kruger United are averaging 2.43 points per game versus 0.43 for The Bees. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +5.3%. This match finished 2-2.

Kruger United vs The Bees Prediction— South-Africa - 1st Division

Match Preview & Prediction

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