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Cape Town City vs Baroka Prediction— South-Africa - 1st Division

Regular Season - 29 ·Sunday, May 10, 2026, 13:00

Cape Town City

PPG 1.86 · HOME

1 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Baroka

PPG 0.29 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 59.7% vs bookmaker-implied 71.4%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-011.5%0-15.2%0-21.2%0-30.2%0-4+0.0%1 1-019.6%1-18.9%1-22.0%1-30.3%1-4+0.0%2 2-016.7%2-17.7%2-21.7%2-30.3%2-4+0.0%3 3-09.5%3-14.4%3-21.0%3-30.2%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-06.0%4+-12.7%4+-20.6%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 59.7% 71.4% 1.40 -16.4%

Draw 25.7% 25.6% 3.90 +0.1%

Away win 14.6% 14.3% 7.00 +1.3%

Over 2.5 45.8% 48.8% 2.05 -6.1%

Over 3.5 17.4% 29.9% 3.34 -25.1%

BTTS 45.9% 46.9% 2.13 -2.2%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 42 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 60%

O2.5 55%

BTTS 62%

Score Hit 60%

ROI 19.5%

Bet Hit 67%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 42%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)0.5 BTTS prob45.9%

H 60% / xG 1.7-0.5 / U2.5 46% / NoBTTS 46%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0✓ 19.6%

#2 2–0 16.7%

#3 0–0 11.5%

#4 1–1 8.9%

#5 3–0 9.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Cape Town City1.7

Baroka0.5

COMBINED 2.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 45.8% · O3.5 PROB 17.4%

Form & verdict PPG

CAPE TOWN CITY · PPG 1.86

BAROKA · PPG 0.29

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: GOOD form (1.86) vs P(Home)=59.7%

Win probability 1X2

Cape Town City (H) 59.7%

ODDS 1.40 · IMPLIED 71.4% EV -16.4%

Draw 25.7%

ODDS 3.90 · IMPLIED 25.6% EV +0.1%

Baroka (A) 14.6%

ODDS 7.00 · IMPLIED 14.3% EV +1.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Cape Town City face Baroka in South-Africa - 1st Division on Sunday, May 10, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Cape Town City a 60% chance, the draw 26% and Baroka 15%, so Cape Town City are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Cape Town City and 0.5 for Baroka (2.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 46% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 46% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Cape Town City are averaging 1.86 points per game versus 0.29 for Baroka. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +1.3%. This match finished 1-0.

Cape Town City vs Baroka Prediction— South-Africa - 1st Division

Match Preview & Prediction

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