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Casric Stars vs Gomora United Prediction— South-Africa - 1st Division

Regular Season - 30 ·Sunday, May 17, 2026, 13:00

Casric Stars

PPG 2.14 · HOME

3 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Gomora United

PPG 0.71 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 52.2% vs bookmaker-implied 63.7%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-011.7%0-17.4%0-22.4%0-30.5%0-4+0.1%1 1-017.7%1-111.2%1-23.6%1-30.8%1-4+0.1%2 2-013.4%2-18.5%2-22.7%2-30.6%2-4+0.1%3 3-06.7%3-14.3%3-21.4%3-30.3%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-03.6%4+-12.3%4+-20.7%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 52.2% 63.7% 1.57 -18.1%

Draw 26.1% 29.0% 3.45 -6.0%

Away win 21.7% 19.2% 5.20 +7.7%

Over 2.5 46.2% 48.8% 2.05 -5.3%

Over 3.5 17.1% 25.3% 3.96 -19.4%

BTTS 48.6% 49.0% 2.04 -0.9%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 42 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 60%

O2.5 55%

BTTS 62%

Score Hit 60%

ROI 19.5%

Bet Hit 67%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 33%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-1

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)0.6 BTTS prob48.6%

H 52% / xG 1.5-0.6 / U2.5 46% / NoBTTS 49%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 17.7%

#2 2–0 13.4%

#3 0–0 11.7%

#4 1–1 11.2%

#5 2–1 8.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Casric Stars1.5

Gomora United0.6

COMBINED 2.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 46.2% · O3.5 PROB 17.1%

Form & verdict PPG

CASRIC STARS · PPG 2.14

GOMORA UNITED · PPG 0.71

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value | B...

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.14) vs P(Home)=52.2%

Win probability 1X2

Casric Stars (H) 52.2%

ODDS 1.57 · IMPLIED 63.7% EV -18.1%

Draw 26.1%

ODDS 3.45 · IMPLIED 29.0% EV -6.0%

Gomora United (A) 21.7%

ODDS 5.20 · IMPLIED 19.2% EV +7.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Casric Stars face Gomora United in South-Africa - 1st Division on Sunday, May 17, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Casric Stars a 52% chance, the draw 26% and Gomora United 22%, so Casric Stars are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Casric Stars and 0.6 for Gomora United (2.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 46% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Casric Stars are averaging 2.14 points per game versus 0.71 for Gomora United. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +7.7%. This match finished 3-1.

Casric Stars vs Gomora United Prediction— South-Africa - 1st Division

Match Preview & Prediction

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