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Baroka vs Upington City Prediction— South-Africa - 1st Division

Regular Season - 30 ·Sunday, May 17, 2026, 13:00

Baroka

PPG 1.07 · HOME

0 – 0

FULL TIME

Upington City

PPG 0.79 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-015.2%0-116.2%0-28.6%0-33.1%0-4+1.0%1 1-012.4%1-113.3%1-27.1%1-32.5%1-4+0.8%2 2-05.1%2-15.4%2-22.9%2-31.0%2-4+0.3%3 3-01.4%3-11.5%3-20.8%3-30.3%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-00.3%4+-10.4%4+-20.2%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 28.1% 27.0% 3.70 +2.4%

Draw 34.3% 33.9% 2.95 +1.2%

Away win 37.5% 51.3% 1.95 -26.9%

Over 2.5 35.0% 44.4% 2.25 -21.3%

Over 3.5 12.3% 23.5% 4.25 -28.6%

BTTS 48.6% 51.8% 1.93 -6.2%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 42 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 60%

O2.5 55%

BTTS 62%

Score Hit 60%

ROI 19.5%

Bet Hit 67%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 54%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-0

xG (home)0.8 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob48.6%

D 34% / xG 0.8-1.1 / U2.5 35% / NoBTTS 49%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0✓ 15.2%

#2 1–1 13.3%

#3 0–1 16.2%

#4 1–0 12.4%

#5 0–2 8.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Baroka0.8

Upington City1.1

COMBINED 1.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 35.0% · O3.5 PROB 12.3%

Form & verdict PPG

BAROKA · PPG 1.07

UPINGTON CITY · PPG 0.79

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.07), Away POOR (0.79)

Win probability 1X2

Baroka (H) 28.1%

ODDS 3.70 · IMPLIED 27.0% EV +2.4%

Draw 34.3%

ODDS 2.95 · IMPLIED 33.9% EV +1.2%

Upington City (A) 37.5%

ODDS 1.95 · IMPLIED 51.3% EV -26.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Baroka face Upington City in South-Africa - 1st Division on Sunday, May 17, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Baroka a 28% chance, the draw 34% and Upington City 38%, so Upington City are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.8 for Baroka and 1.1 for Upington City (1.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 35% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Baroka are averaging 1.07 points per game versus 0.79 for Upington City. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +2.4%. This match finished 0-0.

Baroka vs Upington City Prediction— South-Africa - 1st Division

Match Preview & Prediction

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