Today / Frosinone W vs Brescia W

Frosinone W vs Brescia W Prediction

Sunday, May 10, 2026

Frosinone W
PPG 1.42 · HOME
3 – 0
FULL TIME
✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5
Brescia W
PPG 1.17 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.2 puts the goal expectation well above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.9%0-15.8%0-24.4%0-32.2%0-4+1.1%1 1-06.8%1-110.2%1-27.6%1-33.8%1-4+2.0%2 2-06.0%2-18.9%2-26.7%2-33.3%2-4+1.7%3 3-03.5%3-15.2%3-23.9%3-31.9%3-4+1.0%4+ 4+-02.3%4+-13.4%4+-22.5%4+-31.3%4+-4+0.7%
Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV
Home win 42.0%
Draw 25.4%
Away win 32.5%
Over 2.5 60.2%
Over 3.5 40.8%
BTTS 58.8%
Home O1.5
Away O1.5

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 37%CONFIDENCE
✘ MISS — FT 3-0
xG (home)1.8 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob58.8%

H 42% / xG 1.8-1.5 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 59%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.2%
#2 2–1 8.9%
#3 1–2 7.6%
#4 2–2 6.7%
#5 2–0 6.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Frosinone W1.8
Brescia W1.5

COMBINED 3.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 60.2% · O3.5 PROB 40.8%

Form & verdict PPG

FROSINONE W · PPG 1.42

BRESCIA W · PPG 1.17

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value
42%
BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.42), Away AVERAGE (1.17)

Win probability 1X2

Frosinone W (H) 42.0%
ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —
Draw 25.4%
ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —
Brescia W (A) 32.5%
ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Frosinone W face Brescia W on Sunday, May 10, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Frosinone W a 42% chance, the draw 25% and Brescia W 33%, so Frosinone W are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for Frosinone W and 1.5 for Brescia W (3.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 59% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Frosinone W are averaging 1.42 points per game versus 1.17 for Brescia W. This match finished 3-0.

PredictVantage

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