Today / Freedom W vs RES Roma W

Freedom W vs RES Roma W Prediction

Sunday, May 10, 2026

Freedom W
PPG 1.83 · HOME
0 – 3
FULL TIME
✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS
RES Roma W
PPG 1.75 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Balanced matchup: Home GOOD (1.83), Away GOOD (1.75)

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.5%0-13.1%0-23.2%0-32.2%0-4+1.9%1 1-03.2%1-16.6%1-26.8%1-34.7%1-4+4.0%2 2-03.4%2-17.0%2-27.3%2-35.0%2-4+4.2%3 3-02.4%3-15.0%3-25.2%3-33.6%3-4+3.0%4+ 4+-02.1%4+-14.4%4+-24.5%4+-33.1%4+-4+2.6%
Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV
Home win 41.5%
Draw 23.7%
Away win 34.8%
Over 2.5 62.0%
Over 3.5 60.5%
BTTS 66.7%
Home O1.5
Away O1.5

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 2 48%CONFIDENCE
✘ MISS — FT 0-3
xG (home)2.1 xG (away)2.1 BTTS prob66.7%

H 42% / xG 2.1-2.1 / O2.5 62% / BTTS 67%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 6.6%
#2 2–2 7.3%
#3 2–1 7.0%
#4 1–2 6.8%
#5 3–2 5.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Freedom W2.1
RES Roma W2.1

COMBINED 4.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 62.0% · O3.5 PROB 60.5%

Form & verdict PPG

FREEDOM W · PPG 1.83

RES ROMA W · PPG 1.75

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value
42%
BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home GOOD (1.83), Away GOOD (1.75)

Win probability 1X2

Freedom W (H) 41.5%
ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —
Draw 23.7%
ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —
RES Roma W (A) 34.8%
ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Freedom W face RES Roma W on Sunday, May 10, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Freedom W a 42% chance, the draw 24% and RES Roma W 35%, so Freedom W are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.1 for Freedom W and 2.1 for RES Roma W (4.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 62% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 67% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Freedom W are averaging 1.83 points per game versus 1.75 for RES Roma W. This match finished 0-3.

PredictVantage

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