Today / Bologna W vs Cesena W

Bologna W vs Cesena W Prediction

Sunday, May 10, 2026

Bologna W
PPG 1.50 · HOME
3 – 4
FULL TIME
✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS
Cesena W
PPG 1.92 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Home weakness: GOOD (1.50) vs Away GOOD (1.92)

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.3%0-14.7%0-24.9%0-33.5%0-4+2.9%1 1-03.8%1-18.0%1-28.4%1-35.9%1-4+5.0%2 2-03.3%2-16.8%2-27.1%2-35.0%2-4+4.2%3 3-01.8%3-13.8%3-24.0%3-32.8%3-4+2.4%4+ 4+-01.1%4+-12.4%4+-22.5%4+-31.7%4+-4+1.5%
Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV
Home win 34.4%
Draw 25.1%
Away win 40.5%
Over 2.5 61.7%
Over 3.5 52.5%
BTTS 63.0%
Home O1.5
Away O1.5

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 51%CONFIDENCE
✘ MISS — FT 3-4
xG (home)1.7 xG (away)2.1 BTTS prob63.0%

A 40% / xG 1.7-2.1 / O2.5 62% / BTTS 63%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 8.0%
#2 1–2 8.4%
#3 2–2 7.1%
#4 2–1 6.8%
#5 1–3 5.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Bologna W1.7
Cesena W2.1

COMBINED 3.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 61.7% · O3.5 PROB 52.5%

Form & verdict PPG

BOLOGNA W · PPG 1.50

CESENA W · PPG 1.92

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team | No clear value
45%
DANGER

Home weakness: GOOD (1.50) vs Away GOOD (1.92)

Win probability 1X2

Bologna W (H) 34.4%
ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —
Draw 25.1%
ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —
Cesena W (A) 40.5%
ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Bologna W face Cesena W on Sunday, May 10, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Bologna W a 34% chance, the draw 25% and Cesena W 41%, so Cesena W are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Bologna W and 2.1 for Cesena W (3.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 62% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Bologna W are averaging 1.50 points per game versus 1.92 for Cesena W. This match finished 3-4.

PredictVantage

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