Today / Denzlingen vs Backnang

Denzlingen vs Backnang Prediction

Baden-Württemberg - 28 ·Saturday, April 18, 2026, 12:00

Denzlingen

PPG 0.31 · HOME

2 – 3

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Backnang

PPG 1.08 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.3 puts the goal expectation well above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.6%0-17.8%0-28.5%0-36.1%0-4+5.5%1 1-04.1%1-19.0%1-29.8%1-37.1%1-4+6.4%2 2-02.4%2-15.2%2-25.6%2-34.1%2-4+3.7%3 3-00.9%3-12.0%3-22.2%3-31.6%3-4+1.4%4+ 4+-00.3%4+-10.7%4+-20.8%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 19.3% — — —

Draw 20.1% — — —

Away win 60.6% — — —

Over 2.5 64.6% — — —

Over 3.5 42.5% — — —

BTTS 60.6% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 58%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-3

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)2.2 BTTS prob60.6%

A 61% / xG 1.2-2.2 / O2.5 65% / BTTS 61%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–2 9.8%

#2 1–1 9.0%

#3 0–2 8.5%

#4 0–1 7.8%

#5 1–3 7.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Denzlingen1.2

Backnang2.2

COMBINED 3.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 64.6% · O3.5 PROB 42.5%

Form & verdict PPG

DENZLINGEN · PPG 0.31

BACKNANG · PPG 1.08

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum | No clear value

63%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: AVERAGE form (1.08) vs Home POOR (0.31)

Win probability 1X2

Denzlingen (H) 19.3%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 20.1%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Backnang (A) 60.6%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Denzlingen face Backnang on Saturday, April 18, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Denzlingen a 19% chance, the draw 20% and Backnang 61%, so Backnang are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Denzlingen and 2.2 for Backnang (3.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-2. There is a 65% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 61% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Denzlingen are averaging 0.31 points per game versus 1.08 for Backnang. This match finished 2-3.

Denzlingen vs Backnang Prediction

Match Preview & Prediction

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