Today / Giessen vs Marburg

Giessen vs Marburg Prediction

Sunday, May 10, 2026

Giessen

PPG 2.21 · HOME

1 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Marburg

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.21) vs P(Home)=58.0%

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.7%0-12.2%0-21.4%0-30.6%0-4+0.3%1 1-04.6%1-16.1%1-24.0%1-31.8%1-4+0.8%2 2-06.4%2-18.5%2-25.6%2-32.4%2-4+1.1%3 3-06.0%3-17.8%3-25.2%3-32.3%3-4+1.0%4+ 4+-08.2%4+-110.7%4+-27.0%4+-33.1%4+-4+1.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 58.0% — — —

Draw 20.7% — — —

Away win 21.3% — — —

Over 2.5 61.7% — — —

Over 3.5 58.4% — — —

BTTS 62.5% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 67%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-2

xG (home)2.8 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob62.5%

H 58% / xG 2.8-1.3 / O2.5 62% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–1 8.5%

#2 3–1 7.8%

#3 1–1 6.1%

#4 2–0 6.4%

#5 3–0 6.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Giessen2.8

Marburg1.3

COMBINED 4.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 61.7% · O3.5 PROB 58.4%

Form & verdict PPG

GIESSEN · PPG 2.21

MARBURG · PPG 1.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.21) vs P(Home)=58.0%

Win probability 1X2

Giessen (H) 58.0%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 20.7%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Marburg (A) 21.3%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Giessen face Marburg on Sunday, May 10, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Giessen a 58% chance, the draw 21% and Marburg 21%, so Giessen are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.8 for Giessen and 1.3 for Marburg (4.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 62% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Giessen are averaging 2.21 points per game versus 1.00 for Marburg. This match finished 1-2.

Giessen vs Marburg Prediction

Match Preview & Prediction

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