Today / Germany - Regionalliga - Nord / St. Pauli B vs Hamburger SV B

St. Pauli B vs Hamburger SV B Prediction— Germany - Regionalliga - Nord

North - 33 ·Sunday, May 10, 2026, 13:00

St. Pauli B logo
St. Pauli B
PPG 0.75 · HOME
1 – 1
FULL TIME
✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5
Hamburger SV B logo
Hamburger SV B
PPG 1.38 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.2 puts the goal expectation above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.2%0-18.1%0-27.8%0-35.0%0-4+3.8%1 1-05.2%1-110.0%1-29.7%1-36.3%1-4+4.7%2 2-03.2%2-16.2%2-26.0%2-33.9%2-4+2.9%3 3-01.3%3-12.6%3-22.5%3-31.6%3-4+1.2%4+ 4+-00.5%4+-11.0%4+-21.0%4+-30.7%4+-4+0.5%
Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV
Home win 27.4%
Draw 26.8%
Away win 45.7%
Over 2.5 60.2%
Over 3.5 39.3%
BTTS 58.8%
Home O1.5
Away O1.5

League track record

Based on 48 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 48%
O2.5 73%
BTTS 77%
Score Hit 50%
ROI 3.3%
Bet Hit 72%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 38%CONFIDENCE
✘ MISS — FT 1-1
xG (home)1.2 xG (away)1.9 BTTS prob58.8%

A 46% / xG 1.2-1.9 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 59%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.0%
#2 1–2 9.7%
#3 0–2 7.8%
#4 0–1 8.1%
#5 1–3 6.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

St. Pauli B1.2
Hamburger SV B1.9

COMBINED 3.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 60.2% · O3.5 PROB 39.3%

Form & verdict PPG

ST. PAULI B · PPG 0.75

HAMBURGER SV B · PPG 1.38

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum | No clear value
63%
UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: AVERAGE form (1.38) vs Home POOR (0.75)

Win probability 1X2

St. Pauli B (H) 27.4%
ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —
Draw 26.8%
ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —
Hamburger SV B (A) 45.7%
ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

St. Pauli B face Hamburger SV B in Germany - Regionalliga - Nord on Sunday, May 10, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives St. Pauli B a 27% chance, the draw 27% and Hamburger SV B 46%, so Hamburger SV B are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for St. Pauli B and 1.9 for Hamburger SV B (3.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 59% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, St. Pauli B are averaging 0.75 points per game versus 1.38 for Hamburger SV B. This match finished 1-1.

PredictVantage

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