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SK Poltava vs Shakhtar Prediction— Ukraine - Premier League

Regular Season - 27 ·Sunday, May 10, 2026, 12:30

SK Poltava

PPG 0.46 · HOME

0 – 4

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · AWAY

Shakhtar

PPG 2.23 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Away

Model probability 68.8% vs bookmaker-implied 98.0%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.0%0-16.6%0-211.0%0-312.1%0-4+23.0%1 1-01.2%1-14.0%1-26.6%1-37.3%1-4+13.9%2 2-00.4%2-11.2%2-22.0%2-32.2%2-4+4.2%3 3-00.1%3-10.2%3-20.4%3-30.4%3-4+0.8%4+ 4+-00.0%4+-10.0%4+-20.1%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 9.3% 2.2% 46.00 +196.7%

Draw 21.9% 10.0% 10.00 +71.4%

Away win 68.8% 98.0% 1.02 -29.8%

Over 2.5 61.7% 80.0% 1.25 -22.9%

Over 3.5 54.8% 70.4% 1.42 -22.2%

BTTS 50.8% 35.1% 2.85 +44.8%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 57 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 54%

O2.5 63%

BTTS 68%

Score Hit 56%

ROI 11.4%

Bet Hit 72%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 62%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-4

xG (home)0.6 xG (away)3.3 BTTS prob50.8%

A 69% / xG 0.6-3.3 / O2.5 62% / BTTS 51%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–3 12.1%

#2 0–2 11.0%

#3 0–4✓ 10.0%

#4 1–3 7.3%

#5 1–2 6.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

SK Poltava0.6

Shakhtar3.3

COMBINED 3.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 61.7% · O3.5 PROB 54.8%

Form & verdict PPG

SK POLTAVA · PPG 0.46

SHAKHTAR · PPG 2.23

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum

63%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: EXCELLENT form (2.23) vs Home POOR (0.46)

Win probability 1X2

SK Poltava (H) 9.3%

ODDS 46.00 · IMPLIED 2.2% EV +196.7%

Draw 21.9%

ODDS 10.00 · IMPLIED 10.0% EV +71.4%

Shakhtar (A) 68.8%

ODDS 1.02 · IMPLIED 98.0% EV -29.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

SK Poltava face Shakhtar in Ukraine - Premier League on Sunday, May 10, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives SK Poltava a 9% chance, the draw 22% and Shakhtar 69%, so Shakhtar are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.6 for SK Poltava and 3.3 for Shakhtar (3.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-3. There is a 62% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 51% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, SK Poltava are averaging 0.46 points per game versus 2.23 for Shakhtar. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +196.7%. This match finished 0-4.

SK Poltava vs Shakhtar Prediction— Ukraine - Premier League

Match Preview & Prediction

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