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Lugo vs Zamora Prediction— Spain - Primera División RFEF - Group 1

Group 1 - 36 ·Sunday, May 10, 2026, 12:15

Lugo

PPG 1.71 · HOME

1 – 3

FULL TIME

Zamora

PPG 1.35 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-013.2%0-113.8%0-27.2%0-32.5%0-4+0.8%1 1-013.0%1-113.5%1-27.0%1-32.4%1-4+0.8%2 2-06.4%2-16.6%2-23.5%2-31.2%2-4+0.4%3 3-02.1%3-12.2%3-21.1%3-30.4%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-00.6%4+-10.7%4+-20.3%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 35.3% 40.8% 2.45 -13.5%

Draw 29.2% 33.3% 3.00 -7.4%

Away win 35.6% 35.7% 2.80 -0.3%

Over 2.5 45.8% 43.5% 2.30 +5.3%

Over 3.5 14.7% 23.1% 4.33 -21.8%

BTTS 48.2% 52.6% 1.90 -8.4%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 60 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 40%

O2.5 53%

BTTS 62%

Score Hit 47%

ROI 1.2%

Bet Hit 56%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 2 34%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-3

xG (home)1.0 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob48.2%

D 29% / xG 1.0-1.0 / U2.5 46% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.5%

#2 0–0 13.2%

#3 0–1 13.8%

#4 1–0 13.0%

#5 0–2 7.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Lugo1.0

Zamora1.0

COMBINED 2.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 45.8% · O3.5 PROB 14.7%

Form & verdict PPG

LUGO · PPG 1.71

ZAMORA · PPG 1.35

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.71) > Away AVERAGE (1.35)

Win probability 1X2

Lugo (H) 35.3%

ODDS 2.45 · IMPLIED 40.8% EV -13.5%

Draw 29.2%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV -7.4%

Zamora (A) 35.6%

ODDS 2.80 · IMPLIED 35.7% EV -0.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Lugo face Zamora in Spain - Primera División RFEF - Group 1 on Sunday, May 10, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Lugo a 35% chance, the draw 29% and Zamora 36%, so Zamora are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.0 for Lugo and 1.0 for Zamora (2.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 46% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Lugo are averaging 1.71 points per game versus 1.35 for Zamora. The best value bet our model finds is over 2.5 goals, with an expected value of +5.3%. This match finished 1-3.

Lugo vs Zamora Prediction— Spain - Primera División RFEF - Group 1

Match Preview & Prediction

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