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Phonix Lubeck vs Altona Prediction— Germany - Regionalliga - Nord

North - 33 ·Sunday, May 10, 2026, 12:00

Phonix Lubeck

PPG 1.81 · HOME

2 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Altona

PPG 0.44 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.8 puts the goal expectation well above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.3%0-12.4%0-21.3%0-30.4%0-4+0.1%1 1-06.2%1-16.5%1-23.5%1-31.2%1-4+0.4%2 2-08.5%2-18.9%2-24.7%2-31.7%2-4+0.5%3 3-07.7%3-18.1%3-24.3%3-31.5%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-010.2%4+-110.7%4+-25.7%4+-32.0%4+-4+0.7%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 59.5% — — —

Draw 21.2% — — —

Away win 19.3% — — —

Over 2.5 61.7% — — —

Over 3.5 52.3% — — —

BTTS 58.8% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 48 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 48%

O2.5 73%

BTTS 77%

Score Hit 50%

ROI 3.3%

Bet Hit 72%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 61%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-1

xG (home)2.7 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob58.8%

H 60% / xG 2.7-1.1 / O2.5 62% / BTTS 59%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–1✓ 8.9%

#2 2–0 8.5%

#3 3–1 8.1%

#4 3–0 7.7%

#5 1–1 6.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Phonix Lubeck2.7

Altona1.1

COMBINED 3.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 61.7% · O3.5 PROB 52.3%

Form & verdict PPG

PHONIX LUBECK · PPG 1.81

ALTONA · PPG 0.44

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: GOOD form (1.81) vs P(Home)=59.5%

Win probability 1X2

Phonix Lubeck (H) 59.5%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 21.2%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Altona (A) 19.3%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Phonix Lubeck face Altona in Germany - Regionalliga - Nord on Sunday, May 10, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Phonix Lubeck a 60% chance, the draw 21% and Altona 19%, so Phonix Lubeck are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.7 for Phonix Lubeck and 1.1 for Altona (3.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 62% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 59% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Phonix Lubeck are averaging 1.81 points per game versus 0.44 for Altona. This match finished 2-1.

Phonix Lubeck vs Altona Prediction— Germany - Regionalliga - Nord

Match Preview & Prediction

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