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Ararat Yerevan vs Urartu Prediction— Armenia - Premier League

Regular Season - 25 ·Sunday, May 10, 2026, 12:00

Ararat Yerevan

PPG 0.45 · HOME

0 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · AWAY

Urartu

PPG 2.08 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Away

Model probability 63.9% vs bookmaker-implied 64.5%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.7%0-114.2%0-215.0%0-310.5%0-4+9.1%1 1-04.0%1-18.4%1-28.8%1-36.2%1-4+5.3%2 2-01.2%2-12.5%2-22.6%2-31.8%2-4+1.6%3 3-00.2%3-10.5%3-20.5%3-30.4%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-00.0%4+-10.1%4+-20.1%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 12.5% 20.8% 4.80 -24.0%

Draw 23.6% 25.0% 4.00 -3.4%

Away win 63.9% 64.5% 1.55 -0.9%

Over 2.5 53.0% 56.5% 1.77 -6.2%

Over 3.5 28.6% 33.3% 3.00 -8.5%

BTTS 48.2% 55.6% 1.80 -13.2%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 32 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 53%

O2.5 47%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 50%

ROI -20.4%

Bet Hit 56%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

0 – 3 42%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-1

xG (home)0.6 xG (away)2.1 BTTS prob48.2%

A 64% / xG 0.6-2.1 / O2.5 53% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–2 15.0%

#2 0–1✓ 14.2%

#3 0–3 10.5%

#4 1–1 8.4%

#5 1–2 8.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Ararat Yerevan0.6

Urartu2.1

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.0% · O3.5 PROB 28.6%

Form & verdict PPG

ARARAT YEREVAN · PPG 0.45

URARTU · PPG 2.08

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum | No clear value

63%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: EXCELLENT form (2.08) vs Home POOR (0.45)

Win probability 1X2

Ararat Yerevan (H) 12.5%

ODDS 4.80 · IMPLIED 20.8% EV -24.0%

Draw 23.6%

ODDS 4.00 · IMPLIED 25.0% EV -3.4%

Urartu (A) 63.9%

ODDS 1.55 · IMPLIED 64.5% EV -0.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Ararat Yerevan face Urartu in Armenia - Premier League on Sunday, May 10, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Ararat Yerevan a 13% chance, the draw 24% and Urartu 64%, so Urartu are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.6 for Ararat Yerevan and 2.1 for Urartu (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-2. There is a 53% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Ararat Yerevan are averaging 0.45 points per game versus 2.08 for Urartu. This match finished 0-1.

Ararat Yerevan vs Urartu Prediction— Armenia - Premier League

Match Preview & Prediction

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