Today / Lion City vs A. Niigata (S)
Lion City vs A. Niigata (S) Prediction
Sunday, May 10, 2026
// Model verdict
Over 2.5
Combined xG of 3.4 puts the goal expectation well above the line.
Poisson scoreline matrix
Markets vs the line
Correct score prediction
H 59% / xG 2.4-0.9 / O2.5 61% / BTTS 55%
Top 5 Poisson scorelines
Expected goals
COMBINED 3.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 61.1% · O3.5 PROB 43.7%
Form & verdict
LION CITY · PPG 2.78
A. NIIGATA (S) · PPG 1.80
Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.78) vs P(Home)=59.1%
Win probability
Match Preview & Prediction
Lion City face A. Niigata (S) on Sunday, May 10, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Lion City a 59% chance, the draw 22% and A. Niigata (S) 19%, so Lion City are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.4 for Lion City and 0.9 for A. Niigata (S) (3.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 61% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Lion City are averaging 2.78 points per game versus 1.80 for A. Niigata (S). This match finished 0-2.