Today / Lion City vs A. Niigata (S)

Lion City vs A. Niigata (S) Prediction

Sunday, May 10, 2026

Lion City
PPG 2.78 · HOME
0 – 2
FULL TIME
✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5
A. Niigata (S)
PPG 1.80 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.4 puts the goal expectation well above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.4%0-13.2%0-21.5%0-30.5%0-4+0.1%1 1-08.3%1-17.8%1-23.6%1-31.1%1-4+0.3%2 2-010.2%2-19.5%2-24.4%2-31.4%2-4+0.4%3 3-08.3%3-17.8%3-23.6%3-31.1%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-09.1%4+-18.5%4+-24.0%4+-31.2%4+-4+0.4%
Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV
Home win 59.1%
Draw 21.8%
Away win 19.1%
Over 2.5 61.1%
Over 3.5 43.7%
BTTS 54.6%
Home O1.5
Away O1.5

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 49%CONFIDENCE
✘ MISS — FT 0-2
xG (home)2.4 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob54.6%

H 59% / xG 2.4-0.9 / O2.5 61% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 10.2%
#2 2–1 9.5%
#3 1–1 7.8%
#4 3–0 8.3%
#5 3–1 7.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Lion City2.4
A. Niigata (S)0.9

COMBINED 3.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 61.1% · O3.5 PROB 43.7%

Form & verdict PPG

LION CITY · PPG 2.78

A. NIIGATA (S) · PPG 1.80

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value
55%
HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.78) vs P(Home)=59.1%

Win probability 1X2

Lion City (H) 59.1%
ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —
Draw 21.8%
ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —
A. Niigata (S) (A) 19.1%
ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Lion City face A. Niigata (S) on Sunday, May 10, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Lion City a 59% chance, the draw 22% and A. Niigata (S) 19%, so Lion City are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.4 for Lion City and 0.9 for A. Niigata (S) (3.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 61% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Lion City are averaging 2.78 points per game versus 1.80 for A. Niigata (S). This match finished 0-2.

PredictVantage

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