Today / India - Indian Super League / Kerala Blasters vs Mohammedan

Kerala Blasters vs Mohammedan Prediction— India - Indian Super League

Regular Season - 12 ·Sunday, May 10, 2026, 11:30

Kerala Blasters

PPG 1.00 · HOME

3 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Mohammedan

PPG 0.38 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 51.0% vs bookmaker-implied 73.5%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-09.4%0-16.8%0-22.5%0-30.6%0-4+0.1%1 1-015.4%1-111.2%1-24.0%1-31.0%1-4+0.2%2 2-012.7%2-19.2%2-23.3%2-30.8%2-4+0.2%3 3-06.9%3-15.0%3-21.8%3-30.4%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-04.1%4+-13.0%4+-21.1%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 51.0% 73.5% 1.36 -30.6%

Draw 26.4% 23.1% 4.33 +8.6%

Away win 22.6% 13.3% 7.50 +41.7%

Over 2.5 46.5% 59.9% 1.67 -22.4%

Over 3.5 21.4% 38.2% 2.62 -26.4%

BTTS 48.5% 54.6% 1.83 -11.2%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 37 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 41%

O2.5 57%

BTTS 62%

Score Hit 60%

ROI 5.0%

Bet Hit 64%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 30%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-1

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob48.5%

H 51% / xG 1.6-0.7 / U2.5 46% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 15.4%

#2 1–1 11.2%

#3 2–0 12.7%

#4 0–0 9.4%

#5 2–1 9.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Kerala Blasters1.6

Mohammedan0.7

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 46.5% · O3.5 PROB 21.4%

Form & verdict PPG

KERALA BLASTERS · PPG 1.00

MOHAMMEDAN · PPG 0.38

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.00) > Away POOR (0.38)

Win probability 1X2

Kerala Blasters (H) 51.0%

ODDS 1.36 · IMPLIED 73.5% EV -30.6%

Draw 26.4%

ODDS 4.33 · IMPLIED 23.1% EV +8.6%

Mohammedan (A) 22.6%

ODDS 7.50 · IMPLIED 13.3% EV +41.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Kerala Blasters face Mohammedan in India - Indian Super League on Sunday, May 10, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Kerala Blasters a 51% chance, the draw 26% and Mohammedan 23%, so Kerala Blasters are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Kerala Blasters and 0.7 for Mohammedan (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 47% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Kerala Blasters are averaging 1.00 points per game versus 0.38 for Mohammedan. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +41.7%. This match finished 3-1.

Kerala Blasters vs Mohammedan Prediction— India - Indian Super League

Match Preview & Prediction

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