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Nomme Kalju vs Flora Prediction— Estonia - Meistriliiga

Regular Season - 11 ·Sunday, May 10, 2026, 11:30

Nomme Kalju

PPG 2.00 · HOME

0 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

Flora

PPG 0.75 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.4 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 61.7% vs bookmaker-implied 61.7%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.2%0-13.1%0-21.5%0-30.5%0-4+0.1%1 1-07.9%1-17.6%1-23.7%1-31.2%1-4+0.3%2 2-09.9%2-19.5%2-24.5%2-31.5%2-4+0.4%3 3-08.2%3-17.8%3-23.8%3-31.2%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-09.2%4+-18.8%4+-24.2%4+-31.4%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 59.5% 44.4% 2.25 +33.9%

Draw 21.3% 30.3% 3.30 -17.8%

Away win 19.2% 36.4% 2.75 -28.3%

Over 2.5 61.7% 61.7% 1.62 -0.1%

Over 3.5 45.1% 40.0% 2.50 +12.8%

BTTS 54.6% 65.4% 1.53 -16.5%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 42 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 57%

O2.5 64%

BTTS 57%

Score Hit 36%

ROI -14.4%

Bet Hit 57%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 51%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-1

xG (home)2.5 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob54.6%

H 60% / xG 2.5-1.0 / O2.5 62% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 9.9%

#2 2–1 9.5%

#3 1–1 7.6%

#4 3–0 8.2%

#5 3–1 7.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Nomme Kalju2.5

Flora1.0

COMBINED 3.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 61.7% · O3.5 PROB 45.1%

Form & verdict PPG

NOMME KALJU · PPG 2.00

FLORA · PPG 0.75

🎯 STRONG BET - PPG + Poisson + EV aligned

95%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.00) vs P(Home)=59.5%

Win probability 1X2

Nomme Kalju (H) 59.5%

ODDS 2.25 · IMPLIED 44.4% EV +33.9%

Draw 21.3%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV -17.8%

Flora (A) 19.2%

ODDS 2.75 · IMPLIED 36.4% EV -28.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Nomme Kalju face Flora in Estonia - Meistriliiga on Sunday, May 10, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Nomme Kalju a 60% chance, the draw 21% and Flora 19%, so Nomme Kalju are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.5 for Nomme Kalju and 1.0 for Flora (3.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 62% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Nomme Kalju are averaging 2.00 points per game versus 0.75 for Flora. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +33.9%. This match finished 0-1.

Nomme Kalju vs Flora Prediction— Estonia - Meistriliiga

Match Preview & Prediction

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