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Estonia - Meistriliiga
Regular Season - 11
Hiiu Stadium· Tallinn
Sunday, May 10, 2026
11:30
Nomme Kalju
PPG 2.00
0-1
MISS
Flora
PPG 0.75
Home· +33.9%
🎯 STRONG BET - PPG + Poisson + EV aligned
95% confidence
Match Result (1X2)
Home
59.5%
Odds: 2.25
EV: +33.9%
Draw
21.3%
Odds: 3.30
EV: -17.8%
Away
19.2%
Odds: 2.75
EV: -28.3%
Model lean:
Over 2.5
Result: Away ✘
Goals Markets
Over 2.5
61.7%
Odds: 1.62
-0.1%
Over 3.5
45.1%
Odds: 2.50
+12.8%
BTTS
54.6%
Odds: 1.53
-16.5%
O2.5 OVER → UNDER ✘
BTTS YES → NO ✘
Correct Score Picks
1st
2-0
✘
2nd
2-1
✘
3rd
1-1
✘
4th
3-0
✘
5th
3-1
✘
Expected Goals (xG)
Nomme Kalju
2.48
Flora
0.96
Model Suggestion
Over 2.5
-0.1%
ROI TRACKS: Home
Tracked ROI market:
Home.
Verdict & Form
🎯 STRONG BET - PPG + Poisson + EV aligned
95%
HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME
Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.00) vs P(Home)=59.5%