Today / L. Longyuan vs Qingdao RL

L. Longyuan vs Qingdao RL Prediction

Sunday, May 10, 2026

L. Longyuan
PPG 0.67 · HOME
1 – 3
FULL TIME
Qingdao RL
PPG 0.33 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-033.3%0-120.1%0-26.0%0-31.2%0-4+0.2%1 1-016.6%1-110.0%1-23.0%1-30.6%1-4+0.1%2 2-04.1%2-12.5%2-20.7%2-30.1%2-4+0.0%3 3-00.7%3-10.4%3-20.1%3-30.0%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-00.1%4+-10.1%4+-20.0%4+-30.0%4+-4+0.0%
Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV
Home win 26.7%
Draw 43.5%
Away win 29.8%
Over 2.5 23.8%
Over 3.5 2.6%
BTTS 29.3%
Home O1.5
Away O1.5

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 68%CONFIDENCE
✘ MISS — FT 1-3
xG (home)0.5 xG (away)0.6 BTTS prob29.3%

D 44% / xG 0.5-0.6 / U2.5 24% / NoBTTS 29%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 33.3%
#2 0–1 20.1%
#3 1–0 16.6%
#4 1–1 10.0%
#5 0–2 6.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

L. Longyuan0.5
Qingdao RL0.6

COMBINED 1.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 23.8% · O3.5 PROB 2.6%

Form & verdict PPG

L. LONGYUAN · PPG 0.67

QINGDAO RL · PPG 0.33

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value
52%
MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: POOR (0.67) > Away POOR (0.33)

Win probability 1X2

L. Longyuan (H) 26.7%
ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —
Draw 43.5%
ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —
Qingdao RL (A) 29.8%
ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

L. Longyuan face Qingdao RL on Sunday, May 10, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives L. Longyuan a 27% chance, the draw 44% and Qingdao RL 30%, so a draw is the most likely result. Expected goals are 0.5 for L. Longyuan and 0.6 for Qingdao RL (1.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 24% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 29% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, L. Longyuan are averaging 0.67 points per game versus 0.33 for Qingdao RL. This match finished 1-3.

PredictVantage

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