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Sukhothai vs Muang Thong Utd Prediction— Thailand - Thai League 1

Regular Season - 30 ·Sunday, May 10, 2026, 11:00

Sukhothai

PPG 1.50 · HOME

3 – 0

FULL TIME

Muang Thong Utd

PPG 0.50 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-012.3%0-111.2%0-25.1%0-31.6%0-4+0.4%1 1-014.6%1-113.3%1-26.1%1-31.8%1-4+0.5%2 2-08.6%2-17.8%2-23.6%2-31.1%2-4+0.3%3 3-03.4%3-13.1%3-21.4%3-30.4%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-01.3%4+-11.2%4+-20.5%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 44.3% 41.7% 2.40 +6.3%

Draw 29.4% 31.3% 3.20 -3.5%

Away win 26.3% 37.7% 2.65 -18.2%

Over 2.5 45.8% 56.5% 1.77 -18.9%

Over 3.5 16.0% 34.5% 2.90 -32.2%

BTTS 49.3% 63.7% 1.57 -22.6%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 32 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 59%

O2.5 47%

BTTS 59%

Score Hit 50%

ROI -7.4%

Bet Hit 57%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 27%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-0

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob49.3%

H 44% / xG 1.2-0.9 / U2.5 46% / NoBTTS 49%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.3%

#2 0–0 12.3%

#3 1–0 14.6%

#4 0–1 11.2%

#5 2–0 8.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Sukhothai1.2

Muang Thong Utd0.9

COMBINED 2.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 45.8% · O3.5 PROB 16.0%

Form & verdict PPG

SUKHOTHAI · PPG 1.50

MUANG THONG UTD · PPG 0.50

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - 🎯 STRONG BET - PPG + Poisson + EV aligned

66%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: GOOD form (1.50) vs P(Home)=44.3%

Win probability 1X2

Sukhothai (H) 44.3%

ODDS 2.40 · IMPLIED 41.7% EV +6.3%

Draw 29.4%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV -3.5%

Muang Thong Utd (A) 26.3%

ODDS 2.65 · IMPLIED 37.7% EV -18.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Sukhothai face Muang Thong Utd in Thailand - Thai League 1 on Sunday, May 10, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Sukhothai a 44% chance, the draw 29% and Muang Thong Utd 26%, so Sukhothai are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Sukhothai and 0.9 for Muang Thong Utd (2.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 46% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Sukhothai are averaging 1.50 points per game versus 0.50 for Muang Thong Utd. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +6.3%. This match finished 3-0.

Sukhothai vs Muang Thong Utd Prediction— Thailand - Thai League 1

Match Preview & Prediction

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