← Back to picks 
Thailand - Thai League 1 Sunday, May 10, 2026 11:00 
Sukhothai PPG 1.50 
Muang Thong Utd PPG 0.50
Thailand - Thai League 1 Sunday, May 10, 2026 11:00 Sukhothai PPG 1.503-0 MISS
Muang Thong Utd PPG 0.50Home· +6.3% ⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - 🎯 STRONG BET - PPG + Poisson + EV aligned
66% confidence
Match Result (1X2)
Result: Home
✔
Goals Markets
Over 2.5 45.8% Odds: 1.77 -18.9%
Over 3.5 16.0% Odds: 2.90 -32.2%
BTTS 49.3% Odds: 1.57 -22.6%
O2.5 UNDER → OVER ✘ BTTS NO → NO ✔
Correct Score Picks
1st 1-1 ✘
2nd 0-0 ✘
3rd 1-0 ✘
4th 0-1 ✘
5th 2-0 ✘
Expected Goals (xG)
Sukhothai 1.18
Muang Thong Utd 0.91
Model Suggestion
No Bet NO VALUE BET
Model lean: No market reaches the 50% probability threshold — no pick suggested.
League Track Record ↗
Based on 32 resolved predictions
1X2 Acc 59%
O2.5/Under 47%
BTTS/No 59%
Score Hit 50%
ROI -38.1%
Bet Hit 38% (8 bets)
Verdict & Form
⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - 🎯 STRONG BET - PPG + Poisson + EV aligned
HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME 66%
Home outperforming model: GOOD form (1.50) vs P(Home)=44.3%