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Rayong vs Bangkok Utd Prediction— Thailand - Thai League 1

Regular Season - 30 ·Sunday, May 10, 2026, 11:00

Rayong

PPG 1.86 · HOME

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Bangkok Utd

PPG 1.36 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 54.6% vs bookmaker-implied 64.5%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.7%0-110.1%0-26.6%0-32.9%0-4+1.3%1 1-09.6%1-112.6%1-28.3%1-33.6%1-4+1.6%2 2-06.0%2-17.9%2-25.2%2-32.3%2-4+1.0%3 3-02.5%3-13.3%3-22.2%3-30.9%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-01.0%4+-11.4%4+-20.9%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 36.8% 27.0% 3.70 +36.2%

Draw 27.2% 27.8% 3.60 -1.3%

Away win 36.0% 55.6% 1.80 -35.2%

Over 2.5 47.9% 60.6% 1.65 -21.0%

Over 3.5 25.6% 38.5% 2.60 -20.1%

BTTS 54.6% 64.5% 1.55 -15.4%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 32 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 59%

O2.5 47%

BTTS 59%

Score Hit 50%

ROI -7.4%

Bet Hit 57%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 22%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob54.6%

A 36% / xG 1.2-1.3 / O2.5 48% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1✓ 12.6%

#2 0–0 7.7%

#3 1–2 8.3%

#4 0–1 10.1%

#5 2–1 7.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Rayong1.3

Bangkok Utd1.3

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 47.9% · O3.5 PROB 25.6%

Form & verdict PPG

RAYONG · PPG 1.86

BANGKOK UTD · PPG 1.36

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.86) > Away AVERAGE (1.36)

Win probability 1X2

Rayong (H) 36.8%

ODDS 3.70 · IMPLIED 27.0% EV +36.2%

Draw 27.2%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV -1.3%

Bangkok Utd (A) 36.0%

ODDS 1.80 · IMPLIED 55.6% EV -35.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Rayong face Bangkok Utd in Thailand - Thai League 1 on Sunday, May 10, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Rayong a 37% chance, the draw 27% and Bangkok Utd 36%, so Rayong are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Rayong and 1.3 for Bangkok Utd (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 48% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Rayong are averaging 1.86 points per game versus 1.36 for Bangkok Utd. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +36.2%. This match finished 1-1.

Rayong vs Bangkok Utd Prediction— Thailand - Thai League 1

Match Preview & Prediction

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