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Pathum Utd vs Prachuap Prediction— Thailand - Thai League 1

Regular Season - 30 ·Sunday, May 10, 2026, 11:00

Pathum Utd

PPG 1.93 · HOME

3 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Prachuap

PPG 1.07 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 52.3% vs bookmaker-implied 62.5%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.7%0-18.4%0-24.0%0-31.3%0-4+0.4%1 1-012.9%1-112.4%1-26.0%1-31.9%1-4+0.6%2 2-09.5%2-19.2%2-24.4%2-31.4%2-4+0.4%3 3-04.7%3-14.5%3-22.2%3-30.7%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-02.4%4+-12.3%4+-21.1%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 47.6% 56.5% 1.77 -15.8%

Draw 27.0% 27.8% 3.60 -1.7%

Away win 25.4% 26.0% 3.85 -1.3%

Over 2.5 46.5% 58.8% 1.70 -20.9%

Over 3.5 23.0% 37.0% 2.70 -22.7%

BTTS 52.3% 62.5% 1.60 -16.3%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 32 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 59%

O2.5 47%

BTTS 59%

Score Hit 50%

ROI -7.4%

Bet Hit 57%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 23%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-0

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob52.3%

H 48% / xG 1.5-1.0 / O2.5 46% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.4%

#2 1–0 12.9%

#3 0–0 8.7%

#4 2–0 9.5%

#5 2–1 9.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Pathum Utd1.5

Prachuap1.0

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 46.5% · O3.5 PROB 23.0%

Form & verdict PPG

PATHUM UTD · PPG 1.93

PRACHUAP · PPG 1.07

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: GOOD form (1.93) vs P(Home)=47.6%

Win probability 1X2

Pathum Utd (H) 47.6%

ODDS 1.77 · IMPLIED 56.5% EV -15.8%

Draw 27.0%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV -1.7%

Prachuap (A) 25.4%

ODDS 3.85 · IMPLIED 26.0% EV -1.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Pathum Utd face Prachuap in Thailand - Thai League 1 on Sunday, May 10, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Pathum Utd a 48% chance, the draw 27% and Prachuap 25%, so Pathum Utd are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Pathum Utd and 1.0 for Prachuap (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 47% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Pathum Utd are averaging 1.93 points per game versus 1.07 for Prachuap. This match finished 3-0.

Pathum Utd vs Prachuap Prediction— Thailand - Thai League 1

Match Preview & Prediction

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