Prachuap vs Uthai Thani Prediction— Thailand - Thai League 1

Thailand - Thai League 1 Regular Season - 29 Sam Ao Stadium· Mueang Prachuap Khiri Khan Sunday, May 3, 2026 11:00

Prachuap PPG 1.93

2-0 HIT CS4

Uthai Thani PPG 0.85

Away· +31.2% ✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value

80% confidence

Match Preview & Prediction

Prachuap face Uthai Thani in Thailand - Thai League 1 on Sunday, May 3, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Prachuap a 47% chance, the draw 28% and Uthai Thani 24%, so Prachuap are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Prachuap and 1.1 for Uthai Thani (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Prachuap are averaging 1.93 points per game versus 0.85 for Uthai Thani. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +31.2%. This match finished 2-0.

Match Result (1X2)

Home 47.2%

Odds: 1.57 EV: -25.9%

Draw 28.5%

Odds: 3.65 EV: +4.0%

Away 24.3%

Odds: 5.40 EV: +31.2%

Model lean: BTTS Not tracked as an official bet.

Result: Home ✔

Goals Markets

Over 2.5 50.5% Odds: 1.77 -10.6%

Over 3.5 28.4% Odds: 2.90 -17.6%

BTTS 54.9% Odds: 1.75 -3.9%

O2.5 OVER → UNDER ✘ BTTS YES → NO ✘

Correct Score Picks

1st 1-1 ✘

2nd 2-1 ✘

3rd 1-0 ✘

4th 2-0 ✔

5th 0-0 ✘

Expected Goals (xG)

Prachuap

1.60

Uthai Thani

1.10

Model SuggestionBTTS -3.9% NO VALUE BET
No value bet: model leans BTTS, but EV is -3.9% at these odds — not a recommended bet. 
Highest raw EV: Away (+31.2%) — probability too low to qualify.

League Track Record ↗

Based on 32 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 59%

O2.5/Under 47%

BTTS/No 59%

Score Hit 50%

ROI -38.1%

Bet Hit 38% (8 bets)

Verdict & Form

✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value

80%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: GOOD form (1.93) vs P(Home)=47.2%