Today / Thailand - Thai League 1 / Prachuap vs Uthai Thani

Prachuap vs Uthai Thani Prediction— Thailand - Thai League 1

Regular Season - 29 ·Sunday, May 3, 2026, 11:00

Prachuap

PPG 1.93 · HOME

2 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Uthai Thani

PPG 0.85 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 54.9% vs bookmaker-implied 57.1%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.8%0-17.4%0-24.1%0-31.5%0-4+0.5%1 1-010.8%1-111.9%1-26.5%1-32.4%1-4+0.8%2 2-08.6%2-19.5%2-25.2%2-31.9%2-4+0.7%3 3-04.6%3-15.0%3-22.8%3-31.0%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-02.6%4+-12.9%4+-21.6%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 47.2% 63.7% 1.57 -25.9%

Draw 28.5% 27.4% 3.65 +4.0%

Away win 24.3% 18.5% 5.40 +31.2%

Over 2.5 50.5% 56.5% 1.77 -10.6%

Over 3.5 28.4% 34.5% 2.90 -17.6%

BTTS 54.9% 57.1% 1.75 -3.9%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 32 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 59%

O2.5 47%

BTTS 59%

Score Hit 50%

ROI -7.4%

Bet Hit 57%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 30%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-0

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob54.9%

H 47% / xG 1.6-1.1 / O2.5 50% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.9%

#2 2–1 9.5%

#3 1–0 10.8%

#4 2–0✓ 8.6%

#5 0–0 6.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Prachuap1.6

Uthai Thani1.1

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.5% · O3.5 PROB 28.4%

Form & verdict PPG

PRACHUAP · PPG 1.93

UTHAI THANI · PPG 0.85

✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value

80%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: GOOD form (1.93) vs P(Home)=47.2%

Win probability 1X2

Prachuap (H) 47.2%

ODDS 1.57 · IMPLIED 63.7% EV -25.9%

Draw 28.5%

ODDS 3.65 · IMPLIED 27.4% EV +4.0%

Uthai Thani (A) 24.3%

ODDS 5.40 · IMPLIED 18.5% EV +31.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Prachuap face Uthai Thani in Thailand - Thai League 1 on Sunday, May 3, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Prachuap a 47% chance, the draw 28% and Uthai Thani 24%, so Prachuap are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Prachuap and 1.1 for Uthai Thani (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Prachuap are averaging 1.93 points per game versus 0.85 for Uthai Thani. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +31.2%. This match finished 2-0.

Prachuap vs Uthai Thani Prediction— Thailand - Thai League 1

Match Preview & Prediction

More Thailand - Thai League 1 Predictions