Today / Thailand - Thai League 1 / Ratchaburi vs Rayong

Ratchaburi vs Rayong Prediction— Thailand - Thai League 1

Matchday 29 ·Sunday, May 3, 2026, 11:30

Ratchaburi

PPG 1.79 · HOME

LAST 5

WWLWW

6 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Rayong

PPG 0.71 · AWAY

LAST 5

LDWLD

// Model verdict

BTTS 59% chance

Model probability 57.1% vs bookmaker-implied 59.9%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.6%0-16.1%0-23.3%0-31.2%0-4+0.4%1 1-010.0%1-110.9%1-26.0%1-32.2%1-4+0.8%2 2-08.9%2-19.8%2-25.4%2-32.0%2-4+0.7%3 3-05.3%3-15.8%3-23.2%3-31.2%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-03.6%4+-13.9%4+-22.2%4+-30.8%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 52.0% 67.6% 1.48 -23.0%

Draw 26.5% 24.4% 4.10 +8.6%

Away win 21.5% 17.9% 5.60 +20.4%

Over 2.5 55.1% 61.7% 1.62 -10.7%

Over 3.5 32.7% 40.0% 2.50 -18.3%

BTTS 57.1% 59.9% 1.67 -4.6%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 33 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 58%

O2.5 46%

BTTS 58%

Score Hit 52%

ROI -54.6%

Bet Hit 29%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 44%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 6-1

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob57.1%

H 52% / xG 1.8-1.1 / O2.5 55% / BTTS 57%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.9%

#2 2–1 9.8%

#3 2–0 8.9%

#4 1–0 10.0%

#5 0–0 5.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Ratchaburi1.8

Rayong1.1

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 55.1% · O3.5 PROB 32.7%

Form & verdict PPG

RATCHABURI · PPG 1.79

RAYONG · PPG 0.71

✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value

Chance this pick lands

59%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: GOOD form (1.79) vs P(Home)=52.0%

Win probability 1X2

Ratchaburi (H) 52.0%

ODDS 1.48 · IMPLIED 67.6% EV -23.0%

Draw 26.5%

ODDS 4.10 · IMPLIED 24.4% EV +8.6%

Rayong (A) 21.5%

ODDS 5.60 · IMPLIED 17.9% EV +20.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Ratchaburi face Rayong in Thailand - Thai League 1 on Sunday, May 3, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Ratchaburi a 52% chance, the draw 27% and Rayong 22%, so Ratchaburi are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for Ratchaburi and 1.1 for Rayong (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 55% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 57% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Ratchaburi are averaging 1.79 points per game versus 0.71 for Rayong. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +20.4%. This match finished 6-1.

Ratchaburi vs Rayong Prediction— Thailand - Thai League 1

Match Preview & Prediction

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