Today / Philippines - PFL / Philippine Army vs Mendiola

Philippine Army vs Mendiola Prediction— Philippines - PFL

Group Stage ·Sunday, May 10, 2026, 11:00

Philippine Army

PPG 0.18 · HOME

1 – 2

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O3.5

Mendiola

PPG 0.45 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 3.5

Combined xG of 5.7 puts the goal expectation well above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-00.3%0-11.0%0-21.6%0-31.6%0-4+2.6%1 1-00.9%1-12.7%1-24.2%1-34.2%1-4+7.0%2 2-01.2%2-13.6%2-25.5%2-35.6%2-4+9.1%3 3-01.0%3-13.1%3-24.8%3-34.9%3-4+8.0%4+ 4+-01.3%4+-13.9%4+-25.9%4+-36.0%4+-4+9.9%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 36.0% — — —

Draw 21.2% — — —

Away win 42.8% — — —

Over 2.5 78.8% — — —

Over 3.5 81.9% — — —

BTTS 66.7% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 30 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 47%

O2.5 63%

BTTS 67%

Score Hit 40%

ROI -19.8%

Bet Hit 55%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 3 53%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-2

xG (home)2.6 xG (away)3.1 BTTS prob66.7%

A 43% / xG 2.6-3.1 / O2.5 79% / BTTS 67%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–3 5.6%

#2 2–2 5.5%

#3 3–3 4.9%

#4 3–2 4.8%

#5 2–4 4.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Philippine Army2.6

Mendiola3.1

COMBINED 5.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 78.8% · O3.5 PROB 81.9%

Form & verdict PPG

PHILIPPINE ARMY · PPG 0.18

MENDIOLA · PPG 0.45

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home POOR (0.18), Away POOR (0.45)

Win probability 1X2

Philippine Army (H) 36.0%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 21.2%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Mendiola (A) 42.8%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Philippine Army face Mendiola in Philippines - PFL on Sunday, May 10, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Philippine Army a 36% chance, the draw 21% and Mendiola 43%, so Mendiola are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.6 for Philippine Army and 3.1 for Mendiola (5.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-3. There is a 79% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 67% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Philippine Army are averaging 0.18 points per game versus 0.45 for Mendiola. This match finished 1-2.

Philippine Army vs Mendiola Prediction— Philippines - PFL

Match Preview & Prediction

More Philippines - PFL Predictions