Today / Shenzhen J. vs S. Gongfu

Shenzhen J. vs S. Gongfu Prediction

Sunday, May 10, 2026

Shenzhen J.

PPG 2.00 · HOME

2 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

S. Gongfu

PPG 0.33 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.00) vs P(Home)=50.6%

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-015.1%0-18.0%0-22.1%0-30.4%0-4+0.1%1 1-020.6%1-110.9%1-22.9%1-30.5%1-4+0.1%2 2-014.0%2-17.4%2-21.9%2-30.3%2-4+0.1%3 3-06.4%3-13.4%3-20.9%3-30.2%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-02.9%4+-11.5%4+-20.4%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 50.6% — — —

Draw 27.8% — — —

Away win 21.6% — — —

Over 2.5 35.1% — — —

Over 3.5 12.4% — — —

BTTS 45.9% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 46%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)0.5 BTTS prob45.9%

H 51% / xG 1.4-0.5 / U2.5 35% / NoBTTS 46%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 20.6%

#2 0–0 15.1%

#3 2–0✓ 14.0%

#4 1–1 10.9%

#5 2–1 7.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Shenzhen J.1.4

S. Gongfu0.5

COMBINED 1.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 35.1% · O3.5 PROB 12.4%

Form & verdict PPG

SHENZHEN J. · PPG 2.00

S. GONGFU · PPG 0.33

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.00) vs P(Home)=50.6%

Win probability 1X2

Shenzhen J. (H) 50.6%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 27.8%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

S. Gongfu (A) 21.6%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Shenzhen J. face S. Gongfu on Sunday, May 10, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Shenzhen J. a 51% chance, the draw 28% and S. Gongfu 22%, so Shenzhen J. are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Shenzhen J. and 0.5 for S. Gongfu (1.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 35% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 46% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Shenzhen J. are averaging 2.00 points per game versus 0.33 for S. Gongfu. This match finished 2-0.

Shenzhen J. vs S. Gongfu Prediction

Match Preview & Prediction

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