Today / Liaoning Tieren vs Yunnan Yukun

Liaoning Tieren vs Yunnan Yukun Prediction

Sunday, May 10, 2026

Liaoning Tieren
PPG 1.50 · HOME
1 – 2
FULL TIME
✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5
Yunnan Yukun
PPG 1.20 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.1 puts the goal expectation above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.5%0-18.1%0-27.2%0-34.3%0-4+2.9%1 1-05.9%1-110.6%1-29.5%1-35.6%1-4+3.8%2 2-03.9%2-16.9%2-26.2%2-33.7%2-4+2.5%3 3-01.7%3-13.0%3-22.7%3-31.6%3-4+1.1%4+ 4+-00.7%4+-11.3%4+-21.2%4+-30.7%4+-4+0.5%
Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV
Home win 29.3%
Draw 26.4%
Away win 44.4%
Over 2.5 60.0%
Over 3.5 37.5%
BTTS 58.8%
Home O1.5
Away O1.5

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 46%CONFIDENCE
✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE
xG (home)1.3 xG (away)1.8 BTTS prob58.8%

A 44% / xG 1.3-1.8 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 59%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.6%
#2 1–2 9.5%
#3 0–2 7.2%
#4 2–1 6.9%
#5 0–1 8.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Liaoning Tieren1.3
Yunnan Yukun1.8

COMBINED 3.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 60.0% · O3.5 PROB 37.5%

Form & verdict PPG

LIAONING TIEREN · PPG 1.50

YUNNAN YUKUN · PPG 1.20

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value
52%
MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.50) > Away AVERAGE (1.20)

Win probability 1X2

Liaoning Tieren (H) 29.3%
ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —
Draw 26.4%
ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —
Yunnan Yukun (A) 44.4%
ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Liaoning Tieren face Yunnan Yukun on Sunday, May 10, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Liaoning Tieren a 29% chance, the draw 26% and Yunnan Yukun 44%, so Yunnan Yukun are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Liaoning Tieren and 1.8 for Yunnan Yukun (3.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 59% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Liaoning Tieren are averaging 1.50 points per game versus 1.20 for Yunnan Yukun. This match finished 1-2.

PredictVantage

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