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Osasuna B vs Talavera CF Prediction— Spain - Primera División RFEF - Group 1

Group 1 - 36 ·Sunday, May 10, 2026, 10:00

Osasuna B

PPG 1.06 · HOME

2 – 1

FULL TIME

Talavera CF

PPG 0.76 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-016.6%0-114.6%0-26.4%0-31.9%0-4+0.5%1 1-015.2%1-113.4%1-25.9%1-31.7%1-4+0.5%2 2-07.0%2-16.1%2-22.7%2-30.8%2-4+0.2%3 3-02.1%3-11.9%3-20.8%3-30.2%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-00.6%4+-10.5%4+-20.2%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 36.0% 37.7% 2.65 -4.6%

Draw 34.3% 33.9% 2.95 +1.2%

Away win 29.7% 38.5% 2.60 -13.7%

Over 2.5 35.1% 40.8% 2.45 -14.0%

Over 3.5 10.8% 22.2% 4.50 -30.8%

BTTS 48.2% 51.3% 1.95 -6.0%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 60 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 40%

O2.5 53%

BTTS 62%

Score Hit 47%

ROI 1.2%

Bet Hit 56%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 53%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-1

xG (home)0.9 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob48.2%

D 34% / xG 0.9-0.9 / U2.5 35% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 16.6%

#2 1–1 13.4%

#3 1–0 15.2%

#4 0–1 14.6%

#5 2–0 7.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Osasuna B0.9

Talavera CF0.9

COMBINED 1.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 35.1% · O3.5 PROB 10.8%

Form & verdict PPG

OSASUNA B · PPG 1.06

TALAVERA CF · PPG 0.76

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.06) > Away POOR (0.76)

Win probability 1X2

Osasuna B (H) 36.0%

ODDS 2.65 · IMPLIED 37.7% EV -4.6%

Draw 34.3%

ODDS 2.95 · IMPLIED 33.9% EV +1.2%

Talavera CF (A) 29.7%

ODDS 2.60 · IMPLIED 38.5% EV -13.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Osasuna B face Talavera CF in Spain - Primera División RFEF - Group 1 on Sunday, May 10, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Osasuna B a 36% chance, the draw 34% and Talavera CF 30%, so Osasuna B are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.9 for Osasuna B and 0.9 for Talavera CF (1.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 35% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Osasuna B are averaging 1.06 points per game versus 0.76 for Talavera CF. The best value bet our model finds is a draw, with an expected value of +1.2%. This match finished 2-1.

Osasuna B vs Talavera CF Prediction— Spain - Primera División RFEF - Group 1

Match Preview & Prediction

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