Today / Shenzhen vs Shandong T.

Shenzhen vs Shandong T. Prediction

Sunday, May 10, 2026

Shenzhen

PPG 1.80 · HOME

1 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Shandong T.

PPG 1.50 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.3 puts the goal expectation well above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.5%0-15.5%0-24.4%0-32.3%0-4+1.3%1 1-06.2%1-19.8%1-27.7%1-34.1%1-4+2.3%2 2-05.5%2-18.7%2-26.9%2-33.6%2-4+2.0%3 3-03.3%3-15.2%3-24.1%3-32.1%3-4+1.2%4+ 4+-02.2%4+-13.4%4+-22.7%4+-31.4%4+-4+0.8%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 40.9% — — —

Draw 24.8% — — —

Away win 34.3% — — —

Over 2.5 60.2% — — —

Over 3.5 43.0% — — —

BTTS 59.0% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 38%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-2

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)1.6 BTTS prob59.0%

H 41% / xG 1.8-1.6 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 59%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.8%

#2 2–1 8.7%

#3 1–2✓ 7.7%

#4 2–2 6.9%

#5 2–0 5.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Shenzhen1.8

Shandong T.1.6

COMBINED 3.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 60.2% · O3.5 PROB 43.0%

Form & verdict PPG

SHENZHEN · PPG 1.80

SHANDONG T. · PPG 1.50

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.80) > Away GOOD (1.50)

Win probability 1X2

Shenzhen (H) 40.9%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 24.8%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Shandong T. (A) 34.3%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Shenzhen face Shandong T. on Sunday, May 10, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Shenzhen a 41% chance, the draw 25% and Shandong T. 34%, so Shenzhen are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for Shenzhen and 1.6 for Shandong T. (3.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 59% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Shenzhen are averaging 1.80 points per game versus 1.50 for Shandong T.. This match finished 1-2.

Shenzhen vs Shandong T. Prediction

Match Preview & Prediction

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