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Tuloy FC vs Garelli Utd Prediction— Philippines - PFL

Group Stage ·Sunday, May 10, 2026, 08:00

Tuloy FC

PPG 0.70 · HOME

2 – 4

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Garelli Utd

PPG 0.60 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Balanced matchup: Home POOR (0.70), Away POOR (0.60)

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-00.0%0-10.1%0-20.3%0-30.5%0-4+2.3%1 1-00.1%1-10.5%1-21.1%1-31.8%1-4+7.8%2 2-00.2%2-10.8%2-21.9%2-33.0%2-4+13.3%3 3-00.2%3-10.9%3-22.2%3-33.4%3-4+15.2%4+ 4+-00.4%4+-11.9%4+-24.4%4+-36.9%4+-4+30.9%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 25.1% — — —

Draw 20.3% — — —

Away win 54.6% — — —

Over 2.5 89.2% — — —

Over 3.5 96.1% — — —

BTTS 100.0% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 30 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 47%

O2.5 63%

BTTS 67%

Score Hit 40%

ROI -19.8%

Bet Hit 55%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 4 51%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-4

xG (home)3.4 xG (away)4.7 BTTS prob100.0%

A 55% / xG 3.4-4.7 / O2.5 89% / BTTS 100%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 3–4 4.0%

#2 3–5 3.8%

#3 2–4✓ 3.5%

#4 4–4 3.4%

#5 3–3 3.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Tuloy FC3.4

Garelli Utd4.7

COMBINED 8.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 89.2% · O3.5 PROB 96.1%

Form & verdict PPG

TULOY FC · PPG 0.70

GARELLI UTD · PPG 0.60

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home POOR (0.70), Away POOR (0.60)

Win probability 1X2

Tuloy FC (H) 25.1%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 20.3%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Garelli Utd (A) 54.6%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Tuloy FC face Garelli Utd in Philippines - PFL on Sunday, May 10, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Tuloy FC a 25% chance, the draw 20% and Garelli Utd 55%, so Garelli Utd are favoured to win. Expected goals are 3.4 for Tuloy FC and 4.7 for Garelli Utd (8.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 3-4. There is a 89% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 100% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Tuloy FC are averaging 0.70 points per game versus 0.60 for Garelli Utd. This match finished 2-4.

Tuloy FC vs Garelli Utd Prediction— Philippines - PFL

Match Preview & Prediction

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