Today / Australia - Queensland Premier League / St George W. vs Logan Lightning

St George W. vs Logan Lightning Prediction— Australia - Queensland Premier League

Regular Season - 10 ·Sunday, May 10, 2026, 08:00

St George W.

PPG 0.00 · HOME

0 – 2

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Logan Lightning

PPG 0.80 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 54.6% vs bookmaker-implied 71.4%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.9%0-110.7%0-29.8%0-36.0%0-4+4.1%1 1-05.9%1-110.8%1-29.9%1-36.0%1-4+4.2%2 2-03.0%2-15.5%2-25.0%2-33.0%2-4+2.1%3 3-01.0%3-11.8%3-21.7%3-31.0%3-4+0.7%4+ 4+-00.3%4+-10.6%4+-20.5%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 22.8% 40.0% 2.50 -25.8%

Draw 25.2% 27.0% 3.70 -4.1%

Away win 52.0% 42.9% 2.33 +21.2%

Over 2.5 53.1% 69.0% 1.45 -23.0%

Over 3.5 31.6% 46.5% 2.15 -32.1%

BTTS 54.6% 71.4% 1.40 -23.6%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 33 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 67%

O2.5 70%

BTTS 55%

Score Hit 36%

ROI -0.9%

Bet Hit 70%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 39%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-2

xG (home)1.0 xG (away)1.8 BTTS prob54.6%

A 52% / xG 1.0-1.8 / O2.5 53% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.8%

#2 1–2 9.9%

#3 0–2✓ 9.8%

#4 0–1 10.7%

#5 0–0 5.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

St George W.1.0

Logan Lightning1.8

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.1% · O3.5 PROB 31.6%

Form & verdict PPG

ST GEORGE W. · PPG 0.00

LOGAN LIGHTNING · PPG 0.80

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

40%

NEUTRAL

No PPG data

Win probability 1X2

St George W. (H) 22.8%

ODDS 2.50 · IMPLIED 40.0% EV -25.8%

Draw 25.2%

ODDS 3.70 · IMPLIED 27.0% EV -4.1%

Logan Lightning (A) 52.0%

ODDS 2.33 · IMPLIED 42.9% EV +21.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

St George W. face Logan Lightning in Australia - Queensland Premier League on Sunday, May 10, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives St George W. a 23% chance, the draw 25% and Logan Lightning 52%, so Logan Lightning are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.0 for St George W. and 1.8 for Logan Lightning (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 53% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, St George W. are averaging 0.00 points per game versus 0.80 for Logan Lightning. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +21.2%. This match finished 0-2.

St George W. vs Logan Lightning Prediction— Australia - Queensland Premier League

Match Preview & Prediction

More Australia - Queensland Premier League Predictions