Today / North District vs Lee Man

North District vs Lee Man Prediction

Sunday, May 10, 2026

North District

PPG 1.60 · HOME

2 – 4

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Lee Man

PPG 2.10 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Home weakness: GOOD (1.60) vs Away EXCELLENT (2.10)

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.8%0-14.6%0-25.8%0-34.9%0-4+5.7%1 1-02.7%1-16.7%1-28.6%1-37.3%1-4+8.5%2 2-02.0%2-15.0%2-26.3%2-35.4%2-4+6.3%3 3-01.0%3-12.5%3-23.1%3-32.7%3-4+3.1%4+ 4+-00.5%4+-11.3%4+-21.6%4+-31.4%4+-4+1.6%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 22.3% — — —

Draw 23.0% — — —

Away win 54.8% — — —

Over 2.5 61.7% — — —

Over 3.5 57.1% — — —

BTTS 63.0% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 66%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-4

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)2.5 BTTS prob63.0%

A 55% / xG 1.5-2.5 / O2.5 62% / BTTS 63%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–2 8.6%

#2 1–1 6.7%

#3 1–3 7.3%

#4 2–2 6.3%

#5 0–2 5.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

North District1.5

Lee Man2.5

COMBINED 4.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 61.7% · O3.5 PROB 57.1%

Form & verdict PPG

NORTH DISTRICT · PPG 1.60

LEE MAN · PPG 2.10

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team | No clear value

45%

DANGER

Home weakness: GOOD (1.60) vs Away EXCELLENT (2.10)

Win probability 1X2

North District (H) 22.3%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 23.0%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Lee Man (A) 54.8%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

North District face Lee Man on Sunday, May 10, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives North District a 22% chance, the draw 23% and Lee Man 55%, so Lee Man are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for North District and 2.5 for Lee Man (4.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-2. There is a 62% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, North District are averaging 1.60 points per game versus 2.10 for Lee Man. This match finished 2-4.

North District vs Lee Man Prediction

Match Preview & Prediction

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