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Capalaba vs Ipswich Prediction— Australia - Queensland Premier League

Regular Season - 10 ·Sunday, May 10, 2026, 07:00

Capalaba

PPG 0.50 · HOME

2 – 4

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Ipswich

PPG 2.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.3 puts the goal expectation well above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.6%0-17.6%0-28.1%0-35.8%0-4+5.0%1 1-04.3%1-19.2%1-29.7%1-36.9%1-4+6.0%2 2-02.6%2-15.5%2-25.8%2-34.1%2-4+3.6%3 3-01.0%3-12.2%3-22.3%3-31.7%3-4+1.4%4+ 4+-00.4%4+-10.9%4+-20.9%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.6%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 21.9% — — —

Draw 24.2% — — —

Away win 53.9% — — —

Over 2.5 60.2% — — —

Over 3.5 42.6% — — —

BTTS 58.8% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 33 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 67%

O2.5 70%

BTTS 55%

Score Hit 36%

ROI -0.9%

Bet Hit 70%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 47%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-4

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)2.1 BTTS prob58.8%

A 54% / xG 1.2-2.1 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 59%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.2%

#2 1–2 9.7%

#3 0–2 8.1%

#4 1–3 6.9%

#5 0–1 7.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Capalaba1.2

Ipswich2.1

COMBINED 3.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 60.2% · O3.5 PROB 42.6%

Form & verdict PPG

CAPALABA · PPG 0.50

IPSWICH · PPG 2.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum | No clear value

63%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: EXCELLENT form (2.00) vs Home POOR (0.50)

Win probability 1X2

Capalaba (H) 21.9%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 24.2%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Ipswich (A) 53.9%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Capalaba face Ipswich in Australia - Queensland Premier League on Sunday, May 10, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Capalaba a 22% chance, the draw 24% and Ipswich 54%, so Ipswich are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Capalaba and 2.1 for Ipswich (3.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 59% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Capalaba are averaging 0.50 points per game versus 2.00 for Ipswich. This match finished 2-4.

Capalaba vs Ipswich Prediction— Australia - Queensland Premier League

Match Preview & Prediction

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