Today / Urawa RD W vs Beleza W

Urawa RD W vs Beleza W Prediction

Sunday, May 10, 2026

Urawa RD W
PPG 2.20 · HOME
1 – 0
FULL TIME
✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5
Beleza W
PPG 1.90 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 2.9 puts the goal expectation above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.5%0-15.7%0-22.9%0-31.0%0-4+0.3%1 1-010.3%1-110.6%1-25.5%1-31.9%1-4+0.6%2 2-09.6%2-19.9%2-25.1%2-31.8%2-4+0.6%3 3-06.0%3-16.2%3-23.2%3-31.1%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-04.2%4+-14.4%4+-22.3%4+-30.8%4+-4+0.3%
Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV
Home win 49.3%
Draw 25.6%
Away win 25.1%
Over 2.5 59.3%
Over 3.5 33.0%
BTTS 54.6%
Home O1.5
Away O1.5

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 44%CONFIDENCE
✘ MISS — FT 1-0
xG (home)1.9 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob54.6%

H 49% / xG 1.9-1.0 / O2.5 59% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.6%
#2 2–1 9.9%
#3 2–0 9.6%
#4 1–0 10.3%
#5 0–0 5.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Urawa RD W1.9
Beleza W1.0

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.3% · O3.5 PROB 33.0%

Form & verdict PPG

URAWA RD W · PPG 2.20

BELEZA W · PPG 1.90

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value
52%
MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: EXCELLENT (2.20) > Away GOOD (1.90)

Win probability 1X2

Urawa RD W (H) 49.3%
ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —
Draw 25.6%
ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —
Beleza W (A) 25.1%
ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Urawa RD W face Beleza W on Sunday, May 10, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Urawa RD W a 49% chance, the draw 26% and Beleza W 25%, so Urawa RD W are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.9 for Urawa RD W and 1.0 for Beleza W (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 59% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Urawa RD W are averaging 2.20 points per game versus 1.90 for Beleza W. This match finished 1-0.

PredictVantage

Free daily football predictions across 240+ leagues. A Poisson-based model analyses team form, attack and defence strength, and live bookmaker odds to surface value bets — updated every day, graded every night.

18+ only. PredictVantage is for entertainment and informational purposes only. All predictions are model-generated and do not guarantee any outcome. Match dates and kick-off times come from third-party data and may change — confirm with official sources before betting. Gambling involves risk — never bet more than you can afford to lose. BeGambleAware.org