Today / Melbourne C. B vs Bentleigh G.

Melbourne C. B vs Bentleigh G. Prediction

Sunday, May 10, 2026

Melbourne C. B
PPG 1.00 · HOME
6 – 4
FULL TIME
✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5
Bentleigh G.
PPG 0.67 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.0 puts the goal expectation above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.0%0-14.3%0-21.9%0-30.5%0-4+0.1%1 1-010.7%1-19.2%1-24.0%1-31.1%1-4+0.3%2 2-011.4%2-19.8%2-24.2%2-31.2%2-4+0.3%3 3-08.1%3-17.0%3-23.0%3-30.9%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-07.1%4+-16.1%4+-22.6%4+-30.7%4+-4+0.2%
Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV
Home win 54.2%
Draw 24.6%
Away win 21.2%
Over 2.5 59.3%
Over 3.5 35.0%
BTTS 52.8%
Home O1.5
Away O1.5

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 48%CONFIDENCE
✘ MISS — FT 6-4
xG (home)2.1 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob52.8%

H 54% / xG 2.1-0.9 / O2.5 59% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 11.4%
#2 1–1 9.2%
#3 2–1 9.8%
#4 1–0 10.7%
#5 3–0 8.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Melbourne C. B2.1
Bentleigh G.0.9

COMBINED 3.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.3% · O3.5 PROB 35.0%

Form & verdict PPG

MELBOURNE C. B · PPG 1.00

BENTLEIGH G. · PPG 0.67

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value
52%
MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.00) > Away POOR (0.67)

Win probability 1X2

Melbourne C. B (H) 54.2%
ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —
Draw 24.6%
ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —
Bentleigh G. (A) 21.2%
ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Melbourne C. B face Bentleigh G. on Sunday, May 10, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Melbourne C. B a 54% chance, the draw 25% and Bentleigh G. 21%, so Melbourne C. B are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.1 for Melbourne C. B and 0.9 for Bentleigh G. (3.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 59% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Melbourne C. B are averaging 1.00 points per game versus 0.67 for Bentleigh G.. This match finished 6-4.

PredictVantage

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