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Aucas vs U. Catolica Prediction— Ecuador - Liga Pro

Regular Season - 13 ·Saturday, May 9, 2026, 21:30

Aucas

PPG 1.67 · HOME

2 – 1

FULL TIME

U. Catolica

PPG 1.20 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-017.6%0-117.3%0-28.5%0-32.8%0-4+0.8%1 1-013.3%1-113.0%1-26.4%1-32.1%1-4+0.6%2 2-05.0%2-14.9%2-22.4%2-30.8%2-4+0.2%3 3-01.3%3-11.2%3-20.6%3-30.2%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-00.3%4+-10.3%4+-20.1%4+-30.0%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 27.3% 43.5% 2.30 -22.3%

Draw 35.6% 29.0% 3.45 +22.8%

Away win 37.0% 34.7% 2.88 +6.6%

Over 2.5 35.1% 54.1% 1.85 -35.1%

Over 3.5 9.8% 30.8% 3.25 -40.9%

BTTS 45.9% 59.9% 1.67 -23.4%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 63 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 44%

O2.5 57%

BTTS 59%

Score Hit 57%

ROI -1.1%

Bet Hit 55%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 57%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-1

xG (home)0.8 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob45.9%

D 36% / xG 0.8-1.0 / U2.5 35% / NoBTTS 46%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 17.6%

#2 0–1 17.3%

#3 1–1 13.0%

#4 1–0 13.3%

#5 0–2 8.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Aucas0.8

U. Catolica1.0

COMBINED 1.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 35.1% · O3.5 PROB 9.8%

Form & verdict PPG

AUCAS · PPG 1.67

U. CATOLICA · PPG 1.20

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.67) > Away AVERAGE (1.20)

Win probability 1X2

Aucas (H) 27.3%

ODDS 2.30 · IMPLIED 43.5% EV -22.3%

Draw 35.6%

ODDS 3.45 · IMPLIED 29.0% EV +22.8%

U. Catolica (A) 37.0%

ODDS 2.88 · IMPLIED 34.7% EV +6.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Aucas face U. Catolica in Ecuador - Liga Pro on Saturday, May 9, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Aucas a 27% chance, the draw 36% and U. Catolica 37%, so U. Catolica are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.8 for Aucas and 1.0 for U. Catolica (1.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 35% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 46% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Aucas are averaging 1.67 points per game versus 1.20 for U. Catolica. The best value bet our model finds is a draw, with an expected value of +22.8%. This match finished 2-1.

Aucas vs U. Catolica Prediction— Ecuador - Liga Pro

Match Preview & Prediction

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