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Guayaquil City vs D. Cuenca Prediction— Ecuador - Liga Pro

Regular Season - 13 ·Saturday, May 9, 2026, 21:00

Guayaquil City

PPG 1.80 · HOME

0 – 1

FULL TIME

D. Cuenca

PPG 1.50 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-019.9%0-114.1%0-25.0%0-31.2%0-4+0.2%1 1-018.1%1-112.8%1-24.5%1-31.1%1-4+0.2%2 2-08.2%2-15.8%2-22.0%2-30.5%2-4+0.1%3 3-02.5%3-11.8%3-20.6%3-30.1%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-00.7%4+-10.5%4+-20.2%4+-30.0%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 38.0% 50.0% 2.00 -24.0%

Draw 35.7% 30.8% 3.25 +16.0%

Away win 26.3% 26.3% 3.80 -0.0%

Over 2.5 35.1% 44.4% 2.25 -21.0%

Over 3.5 8.1% 23.8% 4.20 -39.6%

BTTS 45.9% 51.8% 1.93 -11.4%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 63 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 44%

O2.5 57%

BTTS 59%

Score Hit 57%

ROI -1.1%

Bet Hit 55%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 34%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-1

xG (home)0.9 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob45.9%

H 38% / xG 0.9-0.7 / U2.5 35% / NoBTTS 46%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 19.9%

#2 1–0 18.1%

#3 1–1 12.8%

#4 0–1✓ 14.1%

#5 2–0 8.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Guayaquil City0.9

D. Cuenca0.7

COMBINED 1.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 35.1% · O3.5 PROB 8.1%

Form & verdict PPG

GUAYAQUIL CITY · PPG 1.80

D. CUENCA · PPG 1.50

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.80) > Away GOOD (1.50)

Win probability 1X2

Guayaquil City (H) 38.0%

ODDS 2.00 · IMPLIED 50.0% EV -24.0%

Draw 35.7%

ODDS 3.25 · IMPLIED 30.8% EV +16.0%

D. Cuenca (A) 26.3%

ODDS 3.80 · IMPLIED 26.3% EV -0.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Guayaquil City face D. Cuenca in Ecuador - Liga Pro on Saturday, May 9, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Guayaquil City a 38% chance, the draw 36% and D. Cuenca 26%, so Guayaquil City are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.9 for Guayaquil City and 0.7 for D. Cuenca (1.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 35% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 46% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Guayaquil City are averaging 1.80 points per game versus 1.50 for D. Cuenca. The best value bet our model finds is a draw, with an expected value of +16.0%. This match finished 0-1.

Guayaquil City vs D. Cuenca Prediction— Ecuador - Liga Pro

Match Preview & Prediction

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