Today / Lotte vs Oberhausen

Lotte vs Oberhausen Prediction

Saturday, April 18, 2026

Lotte

PPG 1.42 · HOME

0 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Oberhausen

PPG 2.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Away momentum: EXCELLENT form (2.00) vs Home AVERAGE (1.42)

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.1%0-19.2%0-28.4%0-35.0%0-4+3.5%1 1-05.9%1-110.7%1-29.7%1-35.9%1-4+4.0%2 2-03.5%2-16.3%2-25.7%2-33.4%2-4+2.3%3 3-01.3%3-12.4%3-22.2%3-31.3%3-4+0.9%4+ 4+-00.5%4+-10.9%4+-20.8%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 24.4% — — —

Draw 23.0% — — —

Away win 52.5% — — —

Over 2.5 57.2% — — —

Over 3.5 34.8% — — —

BTTS 57.6% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 49%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-1

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)1.8 BTTS prob57.6%

A 52% / xG 1.2-1.8 / O2.5 57% / BTTS 58%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.7%

#2 1–2 9.7%

#3 0–1✓ 9.2%

#4 0–2 8.4%

#5 2–1 6.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Lotte1.2

Oberhausen1.8

COMBINED 3.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 57.2% · O3.5 PROB 34.8%

Form & verdict PPG

LOTTE · PPG 1.42

OBERHAUSEN · PPG 2.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum | No clear value

63%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: EXCELLENT form (2.00) vs Home AVERAGE (1.42)

Win probability 1X2

Lotte (H) 24.4%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 23.0%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Oberhausen (A) 52.5%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Lotte face Oberhausen on Saturday, April 18, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Lotte a 24% chance, the draw 23% and Oberhausen 53%, so Oberhausen are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Lotte and 1.8 for Oberhausen (3.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 57% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 58% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Lotte are averaging 1.42 points per game versus 2.00 for Oberhausen. This match finished 0-1.

Lotte vs Oberhausen Prediction

Match Preview & Prediction

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