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Ituzaingo vs Villa Dalmine Prediction— Argentina - Primera B Metropolitana

Regular Season - 15 ·Saturday, May 9, 2026, 21:00

Ituzaingo

PPG 0.50 · HOME

0 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · AWAY

Villa Dalmine

PPG 2.67 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Away

Model probability 60.7% vs bookmaker-implied 52.4% — a clear edge.

+15.9% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-015.2%0-123.3%0-217.9%0-39.1%0-4+4.9%1 1-05.3%1-18.2%1-26.3%1-33.2%1-4+1.7%2 2-00.9%2-11.4%2-21.1%2-30.6%2-4+0.3%3 3-00.1%3-10.2%3-20.1%3-30.1%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-00.0%4+-10.0%4+-20.0%4+-30.0%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 13.0% 24.4% 4.10 -28.0%

Draw 26.4% 33.9% 2.95 -13.3%

Away win 60.7% 52.4% 1.91 +15.9%

Over 2.5 35.1% 37.0% 2.70 -5.2%

Over 3.5 12.2% 20.0% 5.00 -23.4%

BTTS 41.8% 45.5% 2.20 -8.0%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 96 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 44%

O2.5 69%

BTTS 66%

Score Hit 63%

ROI 21.9%

Bet Hit 58%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

0 – 2 57%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)0.4 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob41.8%

A 61% / xG 0.4-1.5 / U2.5 35% / NoBTTS 42%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–1 23.3%

#2 0–2✓ 17.9%

#3 0–0 15.2%

#4 1–1 8.2%

#5 0–3 9.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Ituzaingo0.4

Villa Dalmine1.5

COMBINED 1.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 35.1% · O3.5 PROB 12.2%

Form & verdict PPG

ITUZAINGO · PPG 0.50

VILLA DALMINE · PPG 2.67

🎯 STRONG BET - Away/Overs value opportunity

95%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: EXCELLENT form (2.67) vs Home POOR (0.50)

Win probability 1X2

Ituzaingo (H) 13.0%

ODDS 4.10 · IMPLIED 24.4% EV -28.0%

Draw 26.4%

ODDS 2.95 · IMPLIED 33.9% EV -13.3%

Villa Dalmine (A) 60.7%

ODDS 1.91 · IMPLIED 52.4% EV +15.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Ituzaingo face Villa Dalmine in Argentina - Primera B Metropolitana on Saturday, May 9, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Ituzaingo a 13% chance, the draw 26% and Villa Dalmine 61%, so Villa Dalmine are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.4 for Ituzaingo and 1.5 for Villa Dalmine (1.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-1. There is a 35% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 42% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Ituzaingo are averaging 0.50 points per game versus 2.67 for Villa Dalmine. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +15.9%. This match finished 0-2.

Ituzaingo vs Villa Dalmine Prediction— Argentina - Primera B Metropolitana

Match Preview & Prediction

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