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D. La Guaira vs Portuguesa Prediction— Venezuela - Primera División

Apertura - Quadrangular - 2 ·Saturday, May 9, 2026, 20:00

D. La Guaira

PPG 2.00 · HOME

1 – 1

FULL TIME

Portuguesa

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-021.2%0-112.6%0-23.7%0-30.7%0-4+0.1%1 1-020.3%1-112.0%1-23.6%1-30.7%1-4+0.1%2 2-09.7%2-15.8%2-21.7%2-30.3%2-4+0.1%3 3-03.1%3-11.8%3-20.5%3-30.1%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-00.9%4+-10.5%4+-20.2%4+-30.0%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 41.7% 54.1% 1.85 -22.9%

Draw 33.6% 31.3% 3.20 +7.5%

Away win 24.7% 25.0% 4.00 -0.7%

Over 2.5 35.1% 46.5% 2.15 -24.5%

Over 3.5 7.2% 25.6% 3.90 -43.1%

BTTS 45.9% 52.6% 1.90 -12.8%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 26 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 77%

BTTS 39%

Score Hit 69%

ROI 18.3%

Bet Hit 64%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 34%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)1.0 xG (away)0.6 BTTS prob45.9%

H 42% / xG 1.0-0.6 / U2.5 35% / NoBTTS 46%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 21.2%

#2 1–0 20.3%

#3 1–1✓ 12.0%

#4 0–1 12.6%

#5 2–0 9.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

D. La Guaira1.0

Portuguesa0.6

COMBINED 1.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 35.1% · O3.5 PROB 7.2%

Form & verdict PPG

D. LA GUAIRA · PPG 2.00

PORTUGUESA · PPG 1.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value | B...

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.00) vs P(Home)=41.7%

Win probability 1X2

D. La Guaira (H) 41.7%

ODDS 1.85 · IMPLIED 54.1% EV -22.9%

Draw 33.6%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV +7.5%

Portuguesa (A) 24.7%

ODDS 4.00 · IMPLIED 25.0% EV -0.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

D. La Guaira face Portuguesa in Venezuela - Primera División on Saturday, May 9, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives D. La Guaira a 42% chance, the draw 34% and Portuguesa 25%, so D. La Guaira are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.0 for D. La Guaira and 0.6 for Portuguesa (1.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 35% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 46% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, D. La Guaira are averaging 2.00 points per game versus 1.00 for Portuguesa. The best value bet our model finds is a draw, with an expected value of +7.5%. This match finished 1-1.

D. La Guaira vs Portuguesa Prediction— Venezuela - Primera División

Match Preview & Prediction

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