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Vizela vs Uniao de Leiria Prediction— Portugal - Segunda Liga

Regular Season - 33 ·Saturday, May 9, 2026, 19:30

Vizela

PPG 1.56 · HOME

1 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Uniao de Leiria

PPG 1.44 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 53.9% vs bookmaker-implied 59.9%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.2%0-110.0%0-26.1%0-32.5%0-4+1.0%1 1-010.6%1-112.8%1-27.8%1-33.1%1-4+1.2%2 2-06.8%2-18.2%2-25.0%2-32.0%2-4+0.8%3 3-02.9%3-13.5%3-22.1%3-30.9%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-01.2%4+-11.5%4+-20.9%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 36.9% 47.6% 2.10 -22.5%

Draw 27.2% 31.3% 3.20 -7.8%

Away win 36.0% 30.3% 3.30 +18.8%

Over 2.5 46.5% 52.6% 1.90 -11.7%

Over 3.5 24.1% 31.3% 3.20 -13.7%

BTTS 53.9% 59.9% 1.67 -10.0%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 42 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 48%

O2.5 45%

BTTS 38%

Score Hit 41%

ROI -30.0%

Bet Hit 40%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 20%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob53.9%

H 37% / xG 1.3-1.2 / O2.5 46% / BTTS 54%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.8%

#2 0–0 8.2%

#3 1–0✓ 10.6%

#4 2–1 8.2%

#5 0–1 10.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Vizela1.3

Uniao de Leiria1.2

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 46.5% · O3.5 PROB 24.1%

Form & verdict PPG

VIZELA · PPG 1.56

UNIAO DE LEIRIA · PPG 1.44

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home GOOD (1.56), Away AVERAGE (1.44)

Win probability 1X2

Vizela (H) 36.9%

ODDS 2.10 · IMPLIED 47.6% EV -22.5%

Draw 27.2%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV -7.8%

Uniao de Leiria (A) 36.0%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV +18.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Vizela face Uniao de Leiria in Portugal - Segunda Liga on Saturday, May 9, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Vizela a 37% chance, the draw 27% and Uniao de Leiria 36%, so Vizela are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Vizela and 1.2 for Uniao de Leiria (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 47% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 54% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Vizela are averaging 1.56 points per game versus 1.44 for Uniao de Leiria. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +18.8%. This match finished 1-0.

Vizela vs Uniao de Leiria Prediction— Portugal - Segunda Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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