Today / Portugal - Segunda Liga / Vizela vs Uniao de Leiria

Vizela vs Uniao de Leiria Prediction— Portugal - Segunda Liga

Matchday 33 ·Saturday, May 9, 2026, 19:30

Vizela

PPG 1.56 · HOME

LAST 5

LWDWL

1 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Uniao de Leiria

PPG 1.44 · AWAY

LAST 5

WLLLD

// Model verdict

BTTS 58% chance

Model probability 53.9% vs bookmaker-implied 59.9%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.2%0-110.0%0-26.1%0-32.5%0-4+1.0%1 1-010.6%1-112.8%1-27.8%1-33.1%1-4+1.2%2 2-06.8%2-18.2%2-25.0%2-32.0%2-4+0.8%3 3-02.9%3-13.5%3-22.1%3-30.9%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-01.2%4+-11.5%4+-20.9%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 36.9% 47.6% 2.10 -22.5%

Draw 27.2% 31.3% 3.20 -7.8%

Away win 36.0% 30.3% 3.30 +18.8%

Over 2.5 46.5% 52.6% 1.90 -11.7%

Over 3.5 24.1% 31.3% 3.20 -13.7%

BTTS 53.9% 59.9% 1.67 -10.0%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 53 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 42%

O2.5 51%

BTTS 40%

Score Hit 38%

ROI -48.9%

Bet Hit 29%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 20%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob53.9%

H 37% / xG 1.3-1.2 / O2.5 46% / BTTS 54%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.8%

#2 0–0 8.2%

#3 1–0✓ 10.6%

#4 2–1 8.2%

#5 0–1 10.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Vizela1.3

Uniao de Leiria1.2

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 46.5% · O3.5 PROB 24.1%

Form & verdict PPG

VIZELA · PPG 1.56

UNIAO DE LEIRIA · PPG 1.44

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

Chance this pick lands

58%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home GOOD (1.56), Away AVERAGE (1.44)

Win probability 1X2

Vizela (H) 36.9%

ODDS 2.10 · IMPLIED 47.6% EV -22.5%

Draw 27.2%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV -7.8%

Uniao de Leiria (A) 36.0%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV +18.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Vizela face Uniao de Leiria in Portugal - Segunda Liga on Saturday, May 9, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Vizela a 37% chance, the draw 27% and Uniao de Leiria 36%, so Vizela are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Vizela and 1.2 for Uniao de Leiria (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 47% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 54% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Vizela are averaging 1.56 points per game versus 1.44 for Uniao de Leiria. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +18.8%. This match finished 1-0.

Vizela vs Uniao de Leiria Prediction— Portugal - Segunda Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

More Portugal - Segunda Liga Predictions