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Lusitania FC vs Torreense Prediction— Portugal - Segunda Liga

Matchday 33 ·Saturday, May 9, 2026, 19:30

Lusitania FC

PPG 1.38 · HOME

LAST 5

LWDLL

1 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Torreense

PPG 1.50 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWWDL

// Model verdict

BTTS 57% chance

Model probability 52.1% vs bookmaker-implied 58.8%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-010.8%0-113.0%0-27.9%0-33.2%0-4+1.3%1 1-010.9%1-113.3%1-28.0%1-33.2%1-4+1.3%2 2-05.6%2-16.7%2-24.1%2-31.7%2-4+0.7%3 3-01.9%3-12.3%3-21.4%3-30.6%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-00.6%4+-10.7%4+-20.4%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 34.7% 28.6% 3.50 +21.4%

Draw 28.9% 29.9% 3.35 -1.9%

Away win 36.4% 50.5% 1.98 -27.9%

Over 2.5 45.8% 52.4% 1.91 -12.5%

Over 3.5 18.6% 30.3% 3.30 -23.2%

BTTS 52.1% 58.8% 1.70 -11.4%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 54 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 43%

O2.5 52%

BTTS 39%

Score Hit 37%

ROI -48.9%

Bet Hit 29%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 2 32%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-2

xG (home)1.0 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob52.1%

D 29% / xG 1.0-1.2 / U2.5 46% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.3%

#2 0–0 10.8%

#3 0–1 13.0%

#4 1–0 10.9%

#5 1–2✓ 8.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Lusitania FC1.0

Torreense1.2

COMBINED 2.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 45.8% · O3.5 PROB 18.6%

Form & verdict PPG

LUSITANIA FC · PPG 1.38

TORREENSE · PPG 1.50

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

Chance this pick lands

57%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.38), Away GOOD (1.50)

Win probability 1X2

Lusitania FC (H) 34.7%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV +21.4%

Draw 28.9%

ODDS 3.35 · IMPLIED 29.9% EV -1.9%

Torreense (A) 36.4%

ODDS 1.98 · IMPLIED 50.5% EV -27.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Lusitania FC face Torreense in Portugal - Segunda Liga on Saturday, May 9, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Lusitania FC a 35% chance, the draw 29% and Torreense 36%, so Torreense are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.0 for Lusitania FC and 1.2 for Torreense (2.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 46% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Lusitania FC are averaging 1.38 points per game versus 1.50 for Torreense. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +21.4%. This match finished 1-2.

Lusitania FC vs Torreense Prediction— Portugal - Segunda Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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