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Benfica B vs Academico Viseu Prediction— Portugal - Segunda Liga

Matchday 33 ·Saturday, May 9, 2026, 19:30

Benfica B

PPG 1.56 · HOME

LAST 5

LLWLL

0 – 2

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Academico Viseu

PPG 1.25 · AWAY

LAST 5

WDDWD

// Model verdict

BTTS 60% chance

Model probability 54.6% vs bookmaker-implied 61.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.3%0-110.1%0-27.0%0-33.3%0-4+1.5%1 1-09.0%1-112.5%1-28.6%1-34.0%1-4+1.9%2 2-05.5%2-17.7%2-25.3%2-32.5%2-4+1.2%3 3-02.3%3-13.1%3-22.2%3-31.0%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-00.9%4+-11.3%4+-20.9%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 36.1% 35.0% 2.86 +3.3%

Draw 27.4% 29.0% 3.45 -3.3%

Away win 36.4% 45.0% 2.22 -19.2%

Over 2.5 52.8% 55.6% 1.80 -5.0%

Over 3.5 26.8% 33.3% 3.00 -11.8%

BTTS 54.6% 61.7% 1.62 -11.6%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 57 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 44%

O2.5 51%

BTTS 39%

Score Hit 35%

ROI -31.4%

Bet Hit 38%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 25%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-2

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob54.6%

A 36% / xG 1.2-1.4 / O2.5 53% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.5%

#2 0–0 7.3%

#3 1–2 8.6%

#4 0–1 10.1%

#5 2–1 7.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Benfica B1.2

Academico Viseu1.4

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 52.8% · O3.5 PROB 26.8%

Form & verdict PPG

BENFICA B · PPG 1.56

ACADEMICO VISEU · PPG 1.25

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

Chance this pick lands

60%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.56) > Away AVERAGE (1.25)

Win probability 1X2

Benfica B (H) 36.1%

ODDS 2.86 · IMPLIED 35.0% EV +3.3%

Draw 27.4%

ODDS 3.45 · IMPLIED 29.0% EV -3.3%

Academico Viseu (A) 36.4%

ODDS 2.22 · IMPLIED 45.0% EV -19.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Benfica B face Academico Viseu in Portugal - Segunda Liga on Saturday, May 9, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Benfica B a 36% chance, the draw 27% and Academico Viseu 36%, so Academico Viseu are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Benfica B and 1.4 for Academico Viseu (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 53% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Benfica B are averaging 1.56 points per game versus 1.25 for Academico Viseu. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +3.3%. This match finished 0-2.

Benfica B vs Academico Viseu Prediction— Portugal - Segunda Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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